Cottbus vs St Pauli Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadion der Freundschaft
Sun 20 Sep 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.13
Draw
4.00
Away Win
2.16
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Cottbus
St Pauli
17'
🟨 Tomoya Ando
21'
🟥 Tomoya Ando
Justin Butler (Moritz Hannemann) ⚽
37'
Axel Borgmann 🟨
57'
60'
🟨 Arkadiusz Pyrka
marcel lotka 🟨
77'
77'
🟨 David Nemeth
80'
⚽ Martijn Kaars (Ricky-Jade Jones)
Match Statistics ?
69%
Ball Possession
31%
14
Total Shots
7
5
Shots on Goal
2
9
Corner Kicks
3
13
Fouls
7
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
1
3
Offsides
4
1
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Cottbus (4-2-3-1)
M. Lotka
H. Rorig
K. Manu
Luca Erlein
A. Borgmann
L. Bittencourt
Lukas Michelbrink
T. Ciğerci
L. Copado
M. Hannemann
J. Butler
St Pauli (4-1-3-2)
B. Voll
A. Pyrka
D. Nemeth
T. Ando
L. Oppie
E. Smith
Y. Niang
M. Rasmussen
J. Fujita
Abdoulie Ceesay
C. Metcalfe
Player Ratings ?
Cottbus
J. ButlerF7.8
K. ManuD7.2
Luca ErleinD7.0
St Pauli
M. KaarsF8.1
R. JonesF6.9
D. NemethD6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Cottbus edge attack, St Pauli edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
St Pauli stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Cottbus slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
St Pauli stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
St Pauli stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
St Pauli have secured two wins from their last five away outings, while Cottbus have managed just one victory in their last five home matches. Cottbus have found the net in three of their last five home matches but have only kept a single clean sheet during that period. St Pauli rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while Cottbus hold a slight advantage in attack. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2014. Over the 3-day comparison window, Cottbus's implied win probability has risen by 0.9 percentage points, while St Pauli's implied win probability has fallen by 1.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from St Pauli
St Pauli's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a St Pauli win as less likely than it did 3 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Cottbus win
Latest market chance 31.0%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
30.1% → 31.0%
+0.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.6% → 24.7%
+0.1 pts
St Pauli win
Latest market chance 44.3%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
45.3% → 44.3%
−1.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Cottbus
Draw
St Pauli
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CottbusSt Pauli
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
10th
5
Games Played
5
1.40
Points/Game
1.20
2.60
Goals/Game
1.40
2.40
Conceded/Game
1.40
17.5
Shots/Game
14.2
5.7
Shots on Target
5.0
Home vs Away Context
Cottbus at home (3 matches) vs St Pauli away (3 matches)
1.33
Points/Game
1.00
2.33
Goals/Game
1.67
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.67
33%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Cottbus
Home form
D
D
L
W
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
St Pauli
Away form
W
L
W
D
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Cottbus Wins
1
Draws
3
St Pauli Wins
1
Avg Goals
1.4
Cottbus1 – 1St Pauli
St Pauli3 – 0Cottbus
St Pauli0 – 0Cottbus
Cottbus2 – 0St Pauli
St Pauli0 – 0Cottbus
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Cottbusvs
St Pauli
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.50
2.60
Goals conceded / game
1.10
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
3/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 65.8%→Latest 66.6%+0.8 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 67.0%→Latest 67.8%+0.8 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Cottbus's 10 matches and 5 of St Pauli's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?