Dresden vs Hertha Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Rudolf-Harbig Stadion
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 19:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.72
Draw
4.09
Away Win
2.35
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Dresden
Hertha
Patrice Čović (Vincent Vermeij) ⚽
10'
29'
⚽ Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson (Josip Brekalo)
Robert Wagner 🟨
32'
37'
🟨 Mads Valentin Pedersen
Ahmet Muhamedbegovic 🟨
39'
43'
🟨 Josip Brekalo
80'
⚽ Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson (Mads Valentin Pedersen)
Match Statistics ?
49%
Ball Possession
51%
7
Total Shots
26
2
Shots on Goal
9
6
Corner Kicks
5
11
Fouls
9
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
2
6
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Dresden (4-2-3-1)
T. Schreiber
S. Straudi
T. Neininger
A. Muhamedbegović
A. Rossipal
R. Wagner
N. Rapp
P. Čović
N. Hauptmann
B. Bobzien
V. Vermeij
Hertha (4-4-2)
M. Gersbeck
J. Eitschberger
L. Gechter
N. Kolbe
M. Pedersen
O. Adewumi
K. Sessa
P. Seguin
J. Brekalo
J. Þorsteinsson
S. Grønning
Player Ratings ?
Dresden
P. ČovićM7.7
T. SchreiberG7.2
C. DafernerF6.9
Hertha
J. ÞorsteinssonF9.5
J. BrekaloM7.6
M. PedersenD7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Dresden edge defence, Hertha edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Hertha stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Hertha stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Dresden slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Hertha stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Hertha have recorded three wins from their last five away outings, whereas Dresden enjoy a stronger run with four victories in their last five home matches. Dresden have found the net in all five of their recent home games while keeping three clean sheets during that same period. Hertha rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while Dresden hold a slight advantage in defence. Hertha won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 4 April 2026, having won 3 of the last 4 encounters to Dresden's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.25 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Dresden's implied win probability has fallen by 10.2 percentage points, while Hertha's implied win probability has risen by 9.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Hertha unbeaten run
3/4
One-goal H2H results
12
Dresden points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Dresden
Dresden's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Dresden win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. Hertha remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Dresden win
Latest market chance 34.7%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
44.9% → 34.7%
−10.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.2% → 24.8%
+0.6 pts
Hertha win
Latest market chance 40.6%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
30.9% → 40.6%
+9.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Dresden
Draw
Hertha
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
DresdenHertha
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
1st
5
Games Played
5
0.80
Points/Game
3.00
1.40
Goals/Game
3.00
2.40
Conceded/Game
1.20
12.7
Shots/Game
19.2
4.5
Shots on Target
6.3
Home vs Away Context
Dresden at home (3 matches) vs Hertha away (4 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
3.00
1.00
Goals/Game
2.75
1.33
Conceded/Game
1.25
33%
Win Rate
100%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Dresden
Home form
W
W
W
W
L
Won 4 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Hertha
Away form
L
L
W
W
W
Won 3 straight away
2 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Dresden Wins
1
Draws
0
Hertha Wins
3
Avg Goals
1.2
Dresden0 – 1Hertha
Hertha2 – 0Dresden
Dresden1 – 0Hertha
Hertha1 – 0Dresden
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Dresdenvs
Hertha
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.90
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.60
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 63.8%→Latest 65.2%+1.4 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 64.1%→Latest 67.1%+3.0 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Dresden's 10 matches and 5 of Hertha's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?