Holstein Kiel vs Osnabruck Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Holstein-Stadion
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 12:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.78
Draw
4.24
Away Win
4.16
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Holstein Kiel
Osnabruck
1'
🟨 Robin Fabinski
9'
🟨 Jonathan Gómez
David Zec 🟨
10'
19'
🟨 Fridolin Wagner
Hiroki Sekine 🟨
29'
Phil Harres ⚽ (P)
45+2'
Noah Madsen 🟨
70'
72'
⚽ (OG) Hiroki Sekine
David Zec 🟥
74'
90+1'
🟨 Timo Schultz
Match Statistics ?
58%
Ball Possession
42%
18
Total Shots
14
4
Shots on Goal
3
10
Corner Kicks
1
11
Fouls
15
3
Yellow Cards
3
1
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Holstein Kiel (4-1-4-1)
T. Weiner
H. Sekine
N. Madsen
D. Zec
Leon Parduzi
J. Meffert
G. de Regt
G. Balzi
K. Davidsen
A. Kaprálik
P. Harres
Osnabruck (3-4-2-1)
J. Krumrey
R. Fabinski
J. Müller
N. Wiemann
P. Kammerbauer
B. Jacobsen
F. Wagner
J. Gómez
A. Beck
R. Meißner
B. Riesselmann
Player Ratings ?
Holstein Kiel
A. KaprálikM7.2
P. HarresF7.2
T. WeinerG7.0
Osnabruck
L. RaimundF6.7
K. FaberD6.6
R. FabinskiD6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Holstein Kiel edge defence and head-to-head, recent form and attack are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Holstein Kiel stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Holstein Kiel stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Osnabruck have recorded just one victory and a single draw from their last five away fixtures, while Holstein Kiel boast two wins and two draws in the same number of home outings. Holstein Kiel have found the net in all five of their recent home matches, though they have also kept two clean sheets within that same span. Holstein Kiel rate stronger on defence and head-to-head, while form and attack are closely matched. Holstein Kiel won the most recent meeting 4-0 on 13 April 2024, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Osnabruck's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.6 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Holstein Kiel's implied win probability has risen by 1.5 percentage points, while Osnabruck's implied win probability has fallen by 0.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Holstein Kiel win as more likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Holstein Kiel win
Latest market chance 53.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
51.6% → 53.1%
+1.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.4%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
24.8% → 23.4%
−1.4 pts
Osnabruck win
Latest market chance 23.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.6% → 23.4%
−0.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Holstein Kiel
Draw
Osnabruck
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Holstein KielOsnabruck
Season Profile
This season
18th
League Position
11th
5
Games Played
5
0.60
Points/Game
1.20
1.20
Goals/Game
1.60
1.80
Conceded/Game
2.20
14.8
Shots/Game
14.3
3.8
Shots on Target
5.0
Home vs Away Context
Holstein Kiel at home (3 matches) vs Osnabruck away (3 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
1.33
1.67
Goals/Game
1.67
1.67
Conceded/Game
1.67
0%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Holstein Kiel
Home form
W
W
L
D
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Osnabruck
Away form
L
D
L
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Holstein Kiel Wins
2
Draws
1
Osnabruck Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.6
Holstein Kiel4 – 0Osnabruck
Osnabruck1 – 1Holstein Kiel
Osnabruck1 – 3Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel1 – 2Osnabruck
Osnabruck4 – 1Holstein Kiel
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Holstein Kielvs
Osnabruck
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.40
Goals conceded / game
2.30
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 60.7%→Latest 63.0%+2.3 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 61.3%→Latest 63.2%+1.9 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
5 of Holstein Kiel's 10 matches and 5 of Osnabruck's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?