St Pauli vs Wolfsburg Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Millerntor-Stadion
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 19:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.54
Draw
3.94
Away Win
2.56
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
St Pauli
Wolfsburg
Lars Ritzka 🟨
4'
12'
🟨 Cleiton Santana dos Santos
Abdoulie Ceesay 🟨
32'
78'
🟨 Tobias Strobl
85'
🟨 Joakim Maehle
Joel Chima Fujita ⚽
88'
Match Statistics ?
40%
Ball Possession
60%
18
Total Shots
10
4
Shots on Goal
2
10
Corner Kicks
4
12
Fouls
8
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
6
Offsides
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
St Pauli (4-1-3-2)
B. Voll
A. Pyrka
D. Nemeth
L. Ritzka
L. Oppie
E. Smith
Y. Niang
M. Rasmussen
J. Fujita
C. Metcalfe
Abdoulie Ceesay
Wolfsburg (4-3-3)
J. Zieliński
K. Fischer
H. Wahl
Cleiton
J. Mæhle
M. Damar
Vinicius Souza
M. Svanberg
A. Bernhardsson
K. Shiogai
F. Reese
Player Ratings ?
St Pauli
J. FujitaM8.1
C. MetcalfeF7.2
A. PyrkaD7.1
Wolfsburg
J. ZielińskiG7.3
H. WahlD6.9
CleitonD6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Statistical Comparison
Wolfsburg stronger
Wolfsburg rate stronger across every available category. They lead recent form and head-to-head. The overall statistical comparison rates Wolfsburg stronger.
Leads 2 of 2 major categories
How They Compare
Recent Form
Wolfsburg stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Wolfsburg stronger
HomeAway
Limited comparison — attack and defence data unavailable for this competition.
Match Analysis
Wolfsburg have enjoyed a solid away run with three wins and two draws from their last five outings, while St Pauli sit on two victories alongside one draw and two defeats in the same number of home fixtures. At home, St Pauli have scored in every single one of their last five matches but have managed just one clean sheet during that identical sample period. Wolfsburg rate stronger on form and head-to-head. Wolfsburg won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 16 May 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to St Pauli's 0, with 3 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. The statistical comparison rates Wolfsburg stronger overall.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Wolfsburg
Wolfsburg's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Wolfsburg win as less likely than it did 1 day ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
St Pauli win
Latest market chance 37.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
35.4% → 37.1%
+1.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.3% → 25.3%
±0.0 pts
Wolfsburg win
Latest market chance 37.5%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
39.3% → 37.5%
−1.8 pts
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 1 day before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
St PauliWolfsburg
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
4th
4
Games Played
4
0.75
Points/Game
2.00
1.50
Goals/Game
2.50
1.75
Conceded/Game
1.50
14.2
Shots/Game
18.7
5.0
Shots on Target
6.3
Home vs Away Context
St Pauli at home (3 matches) vs Wolfsburg away (3 matches)
1.33
Points/Game
2.00
1.00
Goals/Game
2.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
33%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
St Pauli
Home form
L
W
W
D
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Wolfsburg
Away form
D
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
St Pauli Wins
0
Draws
3
Wolfsburg Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.6
St Pauli1 – 3Wolfsburg
Wolfsburg2 – 1St Pauli
Wolfsburg1 – 1St Pauli
St Pauli0 – 0Wolfsburg
Wolfsburg2 – 2St Pauli
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
St Paulivs
Wolfsburg
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
2.20
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.10
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
1/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 62.5%→Latest 62.5%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 64.8%→Latest 64.8%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
6 of St Pauli's 10 matches and 6 of Wolfsburg's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?