Augsburg vs Bayern Munich Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

WWK Arena
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
9.38
Draw
8.97
Away Win
1.21
Match Prediction
Data favours
Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Bayern Munich a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Bayern Munich stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Bayern Munich stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Bayern Munich stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Bayern Munich stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Bayern Munich arrive with an impressive away record of four wins and a single draw from their last five outings, while Augsburg have remained unbeaten at home with two victories and three draws in the same span. At home, Augsburg have found the net in all five of their recent matches but have only managed a solitary clean sheet within that identical sample period. Bayern Munich rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Augsburg won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 24 January 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Bayern Munich's 4, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.0 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 22-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison gives Bayern Munich a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
13
Bayern Munich points from last 5 matches
Team Availability
Augsburg
No current absences reported
Bayern Munich
No current absences reported
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Market View
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How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 22 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Augsburg win
Latest market chance 9.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
9.5% → 9.4%
−0.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 12.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
12.8% → 12.3%
−0.5 pts
Bayern Munich win
Latest market chance 78.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
77.7% → 78.2%
+0.5 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
18 snapshots
+1+0.50−0.5Sep 18Sep 19Sep 20Sep 21Sep 22Sep 23Sep 24Sep 25Sep 26Sep 27Sep 28Sep 29Sep 30Oct 1Oct 2Oct 3Oct 4Oct 5
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Augsburg
Draw
Bayern Munich
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 22 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Augsburg
Bayern Munich
Season Profile
This season
4th
League Position
2nd
4
Games Played
4
1.75
Points/Game
2.50
2.75
Goals/Game
3.50
1.50
Conceded/Game
0.50
14.0
Shots/Game
21.8
7.2
Shots on Target
8.8
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Augsburg at home (2 matches) vs Bayern Munich away (2 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
2.00
2.50
Goals/Game
1.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
0.50
50%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Augsburg
Home form
D
D
W
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Bayern Munich
Away form
W
W
W
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
2.4
Goals scored
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Augsburg Wins
1
Draws
0
Bayern Munich Wins
4
Avg Goals
4.0
2026-01-242025-2026
Bayern Munich1 – 2Augsburg
2025-08-302025-2026
Augsburg2 – 3Bayern Munich
2025-04-042024-2025
Augsburg1 – 3Bayern Munich
2024-11-222024-2025
Bayern Munich3 – 0Augsburg
2024-01-272023-2024
Augsburg2 – 3Bayern Munich
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Augsburg
vs
Bayern Munich
Recent Scoring Profile
2.20
Goals scored / game
3.60
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.10
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
92.6%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
82.7%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
66.7%
BTTSBoth teams score
66.5%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 81.7%→Latest 82.5%+0.8 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Sep 18Sep 19Sep 20Sep 21Sep 22Sep 23Sep 24Sep 25Sep 26Sep 27Sep 28Sep 29Sep 30Oct 1Oct 2Oct 3Oct 4Oct 5
5 common bookmakers · first comparable 22 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 65.8%→Latest 66.7%+0.9 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
Sep 18Sep 19Sep 20Sep 21Sep 22Sep 23Sep 24Sep 25Sep 26Sep 27Sep 28Sep 29Sep 30Oct 1Oct 2Oct 3Oct 4Oct 5
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 22 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
6 of Augsburg's 10 matches and 6 of Bayern Munich's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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