Dortmund vs Paderborn Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Signal Iduna Park
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 14:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.23
Draw
7.25
Away Win
11.01
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 0
Match Events ?
Dortmund
Paderborn
Fábio Silva (Serhou Guirassy) ⚽
5'
39'
🟨 Laurin Ulrich
Jobe Bellingham 🟨
66'
Felix Nmecha (Maximilian Beier) ⚽
80'
Felix Nmecha (Marcel Sabitzer) ⚽
89'
Match Statistics ?
56%
Ball Possession
44%
14
Total Shots
10
8
Shots on Goal
0
7
Corner Kicks
3
11
Fouls
7
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
2
0
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Dortmund (3-4-2-1)
G. Kobel
Kouakou Joane Gadou
W. Anton
N. Schlotterbeck
J. Ryerson
J. Veerman
J. Bellingham
D. Svensson
E. Nwaneri
Fábio Silva
S. Guirassy
Paderborn (3-5-2)
N. Noll
J. ter Horst
T. Scheller
M. Hansen
L. Curda
L. Ulrich
S. Castañeda
G. Vidović
R. Obermair
S. Marino
M. Pieringer
Player Ratings ?
Dortmund
F. NmechaM8.4
S. GuirassyF7.7
Fábio SilvaM7.6
Paderborn
N. NollG6.8
M. HansenD6.6
G. VidovićM6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Dortmund
Dortmund rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Dortmund a very strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Dortmund stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Dortmund stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Dortmund stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Dortmund stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Dortmund have secured four victories from their last five home outings, while Paderborn remain winless in their away sample with three draws and two defeats. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five matches at home but have kept just two clean sheets during that same period. Dortmund rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2020. The market has remained broadly steady over the 8-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison points very strongly towards Dortmund.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Dortmund
Dortmund's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Dortmund win as more likely than it did 8 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Dortmund win
Latest market chance 77.2%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
75.8% → 77.2%
+1.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 13.9%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
14.9% → 13.9%
−1.0 pts
Paderborn win
Latest market chance 8.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
9.3% → 8.9%
−0.4 pts
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 8 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
DortmundPaderborn
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
13th
2
Games Played
2
3.00
Points/Game
0.50
2.50
Goals/Game
0.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
0.50
14.5
Shots/Game
11.8
5.0
Shots on Target
2.0
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Dortmund at home (2 matches) vs Paderborn away (2 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
0.50
2.50
Goals/Game
0.00
0.00
Conceded/Game
1.50
100%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Dortmund
Home form
W
L
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
4 of these matches from last season.
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Paderborn
Away form
D
D
L
L
D
Winless in last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Dortmund Wins
2
Draws
2
Paderborn Wins
0
Avg Goals
5.0
Paderborn1 – 6Dortmund
Dortmund3 – 3Paderborn
Dortmund3 – 0Paderborn
Paderborn2 – 2Dortmund
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Dortmundvs
Paderborn
Recent Scoring Profile
2.00
Goals scored / game
0.70
1.00
Goals conceded / game
2.10
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
2/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 70.4%→Latest 70.5%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.2%→Latest 54.2%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
8 of Dortmund's 10 matches and 8 of Paderborn's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?