Freiburg vs M'gladbach Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Europa-Park Stadion
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 14:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.70
Draw
4.27
Away Win
4.65
Match Report
Full Time
5 – 0
Match Events ?
Freiburg
M'gladbach
13'
🟨 Tim Kleindienst
14'
🟨 Kevin Diks
Yannick Engelhardt (Derry Lionel Scherhant) ⚽
23'
Igor Matanovic (Matthias Ginter) ⚽
29'
52'
🟥 Tim Kleindienst
Igor Matanovic (Jordy Makengo) ⚽
77'
Yannick Engelhardt (Matthias Ginter) ⚽
79'
Maximilian Eggestein ⚽
86'
Cyriaque Irié 🟨
90+2'
90+2'
🟨 Joe Scally
Match Statistics ?
60%
Ball Possession
40%
19
Total Shots
5
9
Shots on Goal
0
6
Corner Kicks
2
7
Fouls
16
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
1
1
Offsides
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Freiburg (4-2-3-1)
M. Backhaus
P. Treu
M. Ginter
P. Lienhart
J. Makengo
M. Eggestein
Y. Engelhardt
J. Beste
Y. Suzuki
D. Scherhant
I. Matanović
M'gladbach (4-4-2)
M. Nicolas
J. Scally
K. Itakura
K. Diks
D. Herold
F. Honorat
P. Sander
K. Stöger
R. Hack
H. Bolin
T. Kleindienst
Player Ratings ?
Freiburg
Y. EngelhardtM9.9
I. MatanovićF9.2
M. GinterD8.5
M'gladbach
H. BolinF6.3
M. NicolasG6.3
I. LidbergF6.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Freiburg
Freiburg rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Freiburg a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Freiburg stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Freiburg stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Freiburg stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Freiburg stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Freiburg have secured three victories from their last five home outings, while M'gladbach remain winless in their away record over the same span with two draws and three defeats. At home, Freiburg have scored in every one of their last five matches but have failed to keep a single clean sheet during that period. Freiburg rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Freiburg won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 22 February 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to M'gladbach's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 8-day comparison window, Freiburg's implied win probability has risen by 2.2 percentage points, while M'gladbach's implied win probability has fallen by 1.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Freiburg a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Freiburg
Freiburg's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Freiburg win as more likely than it did 8 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Freiburg win
Latest market chance 56.5%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
51.4% → 56.5%
+5.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
24.5% → 22.6%
−1.9 pts
M'gladbach win
Latest market chance 20.9%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
24.0% → 20.9%
−3.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Freiburg
Draw
M'gladbach
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 8 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
FreiburgM'gladbach
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
17th
2
Games Played
2
3.00
Points/Game
0.00
2.50
Goals/Game
1.50
0.50
Conceded/Game
3.50
19.0
Shots/Game
16.5
6.5
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Freiburg at home (2 matches) vs M'gladbach away (2 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
0.00
4.50
Goals/Game
0.00
0.50
Conceded/Game
4.00
100%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Freiburg
Home form
L
W
D
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
M'gladbach
Away form
D
L
D
L
L
Winless in last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Freiburg Wins
4
Draws
1
M'gladbach Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.6
Freiburg2 – 1M'gladbach
M'gladbach0 – 0Freiburg
M'gladbach1 – 2Freiburg
Freiburg3 – 1M'gladbach
M'gladbach0 – 3Freiburg
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Freiburgvs
M'gladbach
Recent Scoring Profile
1.90
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.70
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
1/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 58.7%→Latest 60.5%+1.8 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.3%→Latest 59.4%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
8 of Freiburg's 10 matches and 8 of M'gladbach's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?