Freiburg vs Schalke 04 Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Europa-Park Stadion
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 16:30 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.65
Draw
3.98
Away Win
5.43
Match Prediction
Data favours
Freiburg
Freiburg rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Freiburg a strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Freiburg stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Freiburg stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Freiburg stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Freiburg stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Freiburg arrive at home with an impressive unbeaten record from their last five outings, having secured four wins and a draw in that span, while Schalke 04 have struggled away from the ground, managing only two victories against three defeats in their recent five matches. At home, Freiburg have found the net in all five of their most recent matches but have kept just one clean sheet during that same period. Freiburg rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Freiburg won the most recent meeting 4-0 on 23 April 2023, having won 5 of the last 5 encounters to Schalke 04's 0, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 23-day comparison window, Freiburg's implied win probability has fallen by 1.2 percentage points, while Schalke 04's implied win probability has fallen by 0.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Freiburg a strong edge.
Pre-Match Context
Team Availability
Freiburg
No current absences reported
Schalke 04
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards the draw
the draw's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a draw as more likely than it did 23 days ago. Freiburg remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Freiburg win
Latest market chance 57.6%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
58.8% → 57.6%
−1.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
22.2% → 24.1%
+1.9 pts
Schalke 04 win
Latest market chance 18.3%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
19.1% → 18.3%
−0.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Freiburg
Draw
Schalke 04
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 23 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
FreiburgSchalke 04
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
11th
4
Games Played
4
2.50
Points/Game
1.25
3.00
Goals/Game
0.75
0.75
Conceded/Game
1.00
19.0
Shots/Game
11.8
6.5
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Freiburg at home (2 matches) vs Schalke 04 away (2 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
1.50
4.50
Goals/Game
1.50
0.50
Conceded/Game
2.00
100%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Freiburg
Home form
W
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
3 of these matches from last season.
3.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Schalke 04
Away form
W
L
L
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
3.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Freiburg Wins
5
Draws
0
Schalke 04 Wins
0
Avg Goals
3.2
Freiburg4 – 0Schalke 04
Schalke 040 – 2Freiburg
Freiburg4 – 0Schalke 04
Schalke 040 – 2Freiburg
Freiburg4 – 0Schalke 04
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Freiburgvs
Schalke 04
Recent Scoring Profile
2.20
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.30
Goals conceded / game
2.30
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
1/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 61.3%→Latest 58.6%−2.7 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.9%→Latest 57.3%−1.6 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
6 of Freiburg's 10 matches and 6 of Schalke 04's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?