Hamburg vs FC Koln Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Volksparkstadion
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 14:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.77
Draw
3.69
Away Win
2.49
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Hamburg
FC Koln
Albert Grönbaek 🟨
10'
Nicolás Capaldo (Albert Grönbaek) ⚽
44'
Yussuf Poulsen (Albert Grönbaek) ⚽
49'
54'
🟨 Gideon Mensah
77'
🟨 Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
84'
🟨 Ellyes Skhiri
90'
⚽ Ragnar Ache (Ellyes Skhiri)
Match Statistics ?
45%
Ball Possession
55%
12
Total Shots
18
7
Shots on Goal
5
3
Corner Kicks
5
12
Fouls
14
1
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Hamburg (3-4-2-1)
Daniel Heuer Fernandes
N. Capaldo
J. Torunarigha
W. Omari
Z. El Ouahdi
A. Sambi Lokonga
N. Remberg
D. Møller Wolfe
Fábio Vieira
A. Grønbæk
T. Moffi
FC Koln (4-2-3-1)
M. Schwäbe
A. Castro-Montes
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
L. Lochoshvili
G. Mensah
T. Krauß
E. Skhiri
L. Maina
M. Moore
S. El Mala
T. Dallinga
Player Ratings ?
Hamburg
A. GrønbækM8.3
Y. PoulsenF7.4
Fábio VieiraM7.2
FC Koln
M. SchwäbeG7.5
E. SkhiriM7.4
R. AcheF7.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Hamburg edge head-to-head, FC Koln edge recent form and attack, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
FC Koln stronger
HomeAway
Attack
FC Koln stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Hamburg slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
FC Koln have found little success on the road recently, recording just three draws and two defeats in their last five away fixtures, while Hamburg have managed a solitary win alongside two draws from their own last five home outings. Hamburg have scored in four of their last five matches at home but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same period. Three players are unavailable for Hamburg, with FC Koln having one player out ahead of this Bundesliga clash. FC Koln rate stronger on form and attack, while Hamburg hold a slight advantage in head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 14 March 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 8-day comparison window, Hamburg's implied win probability has fallen by 2.5 percentage points, while FC Koln's implied win probability has risen by 2.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Hamburg losing run
3
FC Koln points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards FC Koln
FC Koln's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a FC Koln win as more likely than it did 8 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Hamburg win
Latest market chance 34.9%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
37.4% → 34.9%
−2.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.5% → 26.3%
−0.2 pts
FC Koln win
Latest market chance 38.8%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
36.2% → 38.8%
+2.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Hamburg
Draw
FC Koln
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 8 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
HamburgFC Koln
Season Profile
This season
18th
League Position
12th
3
Games Played
3
0.00
Points/Game
1.33
0.00
Goals/Game
1.67
4.00
Conceded/Game
2.33
9.5
Shots/Game
17.2
3.8
Shots on Target
5.5
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Hamburg at home (2 matches) vs FC Koln away (2 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
0.00
1.00
Goals/Game
1.00
3.00
Conceded/Game
3.00
50%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Hamburg
Home form
D
D
L
W
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
FC Koln
Away form
D
D
D
L
L
Winless in last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Hamburg Wins
2
Draws
2
FC Koln Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.6
Hamburg1 – 1FC Koln
FC Koln4 – 1Hamburg
Hamburg1 – 0FC Koln
FC Koln1 – 2Hamburg
FC Koln1 – 1Hamburg
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Hamburgvs
FC Koln
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.60
2.60
Goals conceded / game
2.30
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
10/10
4/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 58.6%→Latest 60.0%+1.4 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 62.3%→Latest 62.7%+0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
7 of Hamburg's 10 matches and 7 of FC Koln's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?