Hamburg vs Mainz Head to Head, Prediction
Volksparkstadion
Sun 06 Sep 2026 · 14:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.84
Draw
3.61
Away Win
2.47
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 5
Match Events ?
Hamburg
Mainz
-5'
🟨 Sheraldo Becker
19'
⚽ S. Becker (K. Sano)
31'
🟨 Anthony Caci
Zakaria El Ouahdi 🟨
36'
41'
⚽ P. Mwene (S. Becker)
48'
⚽ P. Tietz (S. Becker)
83'
⚽ P. Tietz (Lee Jae-Sung)
85'
🟨 Phillipp Mwene
90'
⚽ R. Konigsdorffer (P. Mwene)
Match Statistics ?
54%
Ball Possession
46%
8
Total Shots
17
1
Shots on Goal
8
4
Corner Kicks
5
14
Fouls
19
1
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Hamburg (3-4-2-1)
D. Heuer Fernandes
N. Capaldo
S. Bornauw
J. Torunarigha
Z. El Ouahdi
B. Nadir
N. Remberg
D. Wolfe
M. Adeline
A. Gronbaek
T. Moffi
Mainz (3-5-2)
A. Schwolow
S. Posch
F. Gruber
K. Potulski
A. Caci
N. Amiri
K. Sano
Lee Jae-Sung
P. Mwene
S. Becker
P. Tietz
Player Ratings ?
Hamburg
P. DakaF6.5
N. RembergM6.5
Otto Emerson StangeF6.3
Mainz
P. TietzF9.4
S. BeckerF9.0
P. MweneM8.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Hamburg edge head-to-head, Mainz edge recent form, attack and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Mainz stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Mainz stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Mainz stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Hamburg stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Hamburg
Hamburg's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Hamburg win as less likely than it did 7 days ago. Mainz remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Hamburg win
Latest market chance 33.8%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
37.1% → 33.8%
−3.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.7% → 26.9%
+0.2 pts
Mainz win
Latest market chance 39.3%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
36.3% → 39.3%
+3.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Hamburg
Draw
Mainz
12 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 7 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
HamburgMainz
Season Profile
This season
17th
League Position
12th
1
Games Played
1
0.00
Points/Game
1.00
0.00
Goals/Game
0.00
2.00
Conceded/Game
0.00
9.5
Shots/Game
18.2
3.8
Shots on Target
6.2
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Hamburg at home (2 matches) vs Mainz away (2 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
3.00
1.00
Goals/Game
4.50
3.00
Conceded/Game
1.50
50%
Win Rate
100%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Hamburg
Home form
L
D
D
L
W
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
5 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Mainz
Away form
W
W
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 away
5 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Hamburg Wins
1
Draws
3
Mainz Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.2
Mainz1 – 1Hamburg
Hamburg4 – 0Mainz
Hamburg0 – 0Mainz
Mainz3 – 2Hamburg
Hamburg0 – 0Mainz
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Hamburgvs
Mainz
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
1.50
2.00
Goals conceded / game
1.20
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 11 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.7%→Latest 55.1%−1.6 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.4%→Latest 59.4%−1.0 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
9 of Hamburg's 10 matches and 9 of Mainz's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?