Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
SNP Arena
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 14:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.32
Draw
4.08
Away Win
2.79
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Hoffenheim
Stuttgart
Adam Hložek (Bambasé Conté) ⚽
13'
48'
⚽ Maximilian Mittelstädt
Wouter Burger 🟨
63'
Adam Hložek (Adam Daghim) ⚽
67'
Match Statistics ?
43%
Ball Possession
57%
20
Total Shots
16
8
Shots on Goal
5
5
Corner Kicks
7
15
Fouls
8
1
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Hoffenheim (4-4-2)
O. Baumann
V. Coufal
O. Kabak
A. Hajdari
M. Rots
B. Conté
L. Avdullahu
W. Burger
A. Daghim
A. Hložek
T. Lemperle
Stuttgart (3-4-2-1)
F. Bredlow
Finn Jeltsch
J. Chabot
R. Hendriks
J. Vagnoman
G. Prömel
A. Stiller
M. Mittelstädt
E. Demirović
C. Führich
D. Pejčinović
Player Ratings ?
Hoffenheim
A. HložekF8.4
A. DaghimM7.6
M. RotsD7.4
Stuttgart
M. MittelstädtM8.2
F. BredlowG7.2
R. HendriksD6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Hoffenheim edge defence, Stuttgart edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Stuttgart stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Stuttgart stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Hoffenheim stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Stuttgart slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Stuttgart have managed just one win from their last five away fixtures, while Hoffenheim have secured two victories in that same stretch at home. Hoffenheim have found the net in all five of their recent home outings but have kept just one clean sheet during that span. Stuttgart rate stronger on form and attack, with a slight advantage in head-to-head, while Hoffenheim rate stronger on defence. The most recent meeting, on 2 May 2026, ended level, with 4 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 8-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Hoffenheim win as more likely than it did 8 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Hoffenheim win
Latest market chance 41.2%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
40.0% → 41.2%
+1.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.6%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
24.6% → 23.6%
−1.0 pts
Stuttgart win
Latest market chance 35.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
35.4% → 35.2%
−0.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Hoffenheim
Draw
Stuttgart
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 8 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
HoffenheimStuttgart
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
10th
2
Games Played
2
0.00
Points/Game
1.50
2.00
Goals/Game
2.50
3.00
Conceded/Game
3.00
19.0
Shots/Game
15.2
5.0
Shots on Target
5.5
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Hoffenheim at home (2 matches) vs Stuttgart away (2 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
0.00
2.00
Goals/Game
1.00
2.00
Conceded/Game
3.50
50%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Hoffenheim
Home form
L
W
D
W
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Stuttgart
Away form
W
L
D
D
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
3.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Hoffenheim Wins
0
Draws
4
Stuttgart Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.6
Hoffenheim3 – 3Stuttgart
Stuttgart0 – 0Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim1 – 1Stuttgart
Stuttgart1 – 1Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim0 – 3Stuttgart
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Hoffenheimvs
Stuttgart
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
2.50
2.40
Goals conceded / game
2.10
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 66.7%→Latest 70.7%+4.0 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 67.6%→Latest 71.3%+3.7 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
8 of Hoffenheim's 10 matches and 8 of Stuttgart's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?