M'gladbach vs Mainz Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Borussia-Park
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 14:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.06
Draw
3.87
Away Win
2.23
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 4
Match Events ?
M'gladbach
Mainz
Florian Neuhaus (Lukas Ullrich) ⚽
11'
18'
⚽ Phillip Tietz (Sheraldo Becker)
Lukas Ullrich 🟨
19'
45+1'
⚽ Sheraldo Becker (Anthony Caci)
55'
🟨 Stefan Posch
Philipp Sander 🟨
55'
Kevin Diks •
57'
Isac Lidberg (Lukas Ullrich) ⚽
59'
Florian Neuhaus 🟨
62'
73'
🟨 Phillipp Mwene
78'
⚽ Eric Martel (Kaishu Sano)
Wael Mohya 🟨
87'
Kevin Stöger 🟨
87'
89'
⚽ Danny da Costa
90+3'
🟨 Kacper Potulski
Shuto Machino 🟨
90+3'
90+4'
🟨 Alexander Schwolow
Shuto Machino ⚽ (P)
90+5'
90+7'
🟨 Ransford Konigsdorffer
Match Statistics ?
47%
Ball Possession
53%
21
Total Shots
17
7
Shots on Goal
8
6
Corner Kicks
4
12
Fouls
14
6
Yellow Cards
5
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
2
4
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
M'gladbach (3-4-2-1)
M. Nicolas
K. Itakura
J. Leszczyński
K. Diks
J. Scally
H. Bolin
P. Sander
L. Ullrich
F. Honorat
F. Neuhaus
I. Lidberg
Mainz (3-5-2)
A. Schwolow
S. Posch
F. Gruber
K. Potulski
A. Caci
N. Amiri
K. Sano
Lee Jae-Sung
P. Mwene
P. Tietz
S. Becker
Player Ratings ?
M'gladbach
S. MachinoF7.5
F. NeuhausM7.5
L. UllrichM7.2
Mainz
S. BeckerF9.0
P. TietzF7.8
E. MartelM7.1
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. M'gladbach edge head-to-head, Mainz edge recent form, attack and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Mainz stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Mainz stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Mainz stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
M'gladbach slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Mainz have enjoyed a solid run with four wins and a draw in their last five away outings, while M'gladbach have secured two victories from two draws and a single defeat in their last five home matches. M'gladbach have scored in five of their last five home matches, though they have only managed two clean sheets from that same period. M'gladbach face three confirmed absences and two doubtful players, whereas Mainz have five confirmed outcasts but no doubts. Mainz rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while M'gladbach hold a slight advantage in head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 19 April 2026, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 8-day comparison window, M'gladbach's implied win probability has fallen by 2.2 percentage points, while Mainz's implied win probability has risen by 2.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
M'gladbach losing run
13
Mainz points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Mainz
Mainz's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Mainz win as more likely than it did 8 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
M'gladbach win
Latest market chance 31.8%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
34.0% → 31.8%
−2.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.7% → 25.2%
−0.5 pts
Mainz win
Latest market chance 43.0%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
40.4% → 43.0%
+2.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
M'gladbach
Draw
Mainz
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 8 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
M'gladbachMainz
Season Profile
This season
17th
League Position
8th
3
Games Played
3
0.00
Points/Game
1.33
1.00
Goals/Game
2.00
4.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
16.5
Shots/Game
18.2
4.2
Shots on Target
6.2
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
M'gladbach at home (2 matches) vs Mainz away (2 matches)
0.00
Points/Game
3.00
3.00
Goals/Game
4.50
4.00
Conceded/Game
1.50
0%
Win Rate
100%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
M'gladbach
Home form
D
D
W
W
L
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Mainz
Away form
W
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight away
4 of these matches from last season.
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
M'gladbach Wins
1
Draws
3
Mainz Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.2
M'gladbach1 – 1Mainz
Mainz0 – 1M'gladbach
M'gladbach1 – 3Mainz
Mainz1 – 1M'gladbach
Mainz1 – 1M'gladbach
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
M'gladbachvs
Mainz
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.90
Goals conceded / game
1.40
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
4/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 60.8%→Latest 63.1%+2.3 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 62.9%→Latest 64.9%+2.0 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
7 of M'gladbach's 10 matches and 7 of Mainz's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?