Paderborn vs Freiburg Head to Head, Prediction
Home Deluxe Arena
Sat 05 Sep 2026 · 14:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.57
Draw
3.87
Away Win
2.02
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Paderborn
Freiburg
26'
⚽ M. Eggestein
Laurin Curda 🟨
38'
43'
🟨 Yuito Suzuki
Jano Ter-Horst 🟨
48'
56'
🟨 Philipp Lienhart
59'
🟨 Yannick Engelhardt
Tjark Lasse Scheller 🟨
90+3'
Match Statistics ?
59%
Ball Possession
41%
14
Total Shots
16
3
Shots on Goal
5
5
Corner Kicks
4
16
Fouls
10
3
Yellow Cards
3
1
Offsides
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Paderborn (3-1-4-2)
N. Noll
J. ter Horst
T. Scheller
M. Hansen
S. Castaneda
L. Curda
L. Ulrich
G. Vidovic
R. Obermair
M. Pieringer
R. Philippe
Freiburg (4-2-3-1)
M. Backhaus
P. Treu
M. Ginter
P. Lienhart
J. Makengo
M. Eggestein
Y. Engelhardt
J. Beste
Y. Suzuki
D. Scherhant
I. Matanovic
Player Ratings ?
Paderborn
Nahuel NollG8.5
Tjark Lasse SchellerD7.9
Santiago CastañedaM7.0
Freiburg
Mio BackhausG8.2
Philipp TreuD8.0
Matthias GinterD7.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Freiburg
Freiburg rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Freiburg an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Freiburg stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Freiburg stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Freiburg stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Freiburg stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Freiburg
Freiburg's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Freiburg win as more likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Paderborn win
Latest market chance 26.8%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
33.7% → 26.8%
−6.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.5%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
27.1% → 25.5%
−1.6 pts
Freiburg win
Latest market chance 47.7%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
39.3% → 47.7%
+8.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Paderborn
Draw
Freiburg
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
PaderbornFreiburg
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
2nd
1
Games Played
1
1.00
Points/Game
3.00
0.00
Goals/Game
4.00
0.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
11.8
Shots/Game
19.0
2.0
Shots on Target
6.5
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Paderborn at home (2 matches) vs Freiburg away (2 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
2.00
1.50
Goals/Game
1.50
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
50%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Paderborn
Home form
L
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight at home
5 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
3.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Freiburg
Away form
L
W
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
5 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Paderborn Wins
2
Draws
0
Freiburg Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.4
Freiburg0 – 2Paderborn
Paderborn1 – 3Freiburg
Paderborn1 – 2Freiburg
Freiburg4 – 1Paderborn
Freiburg1 – 2Paderborn
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Paderbornvs
Freiburg
Recent Scoring Profile
0.70
Goals scored / game
1.80
2.00
Goals conceded / game
1.60
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
4/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.6%→Latest 57.8%+1.2 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.5%→Latest 60.3%−0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
9 of Paderborn's 10 matches and 9 of Freiburg's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?