Paderborn vs Hoffenheim Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Home Deluxe Arena
Sun 20 Sep 2026 · 18:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
4.54
Draw
4.46
Away Win
1.69
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Paderborn
Hoffenheim
Santiago Castaneda ⚽
29'
Stefano Marino (Laurin Curda) ⚽
42'
45'
🟨 Wouter Burger
50'
⚽ Adam Daghim (Max Moerstedt)
Steffen Tigges (Jonah Sticker) ⚽
69'
Match Statistics ?
34%
Ball Possession
66%
13
Total Shots
23
5
Shots on Goal
2
6
Corner Kicks
5
6
Fouls
14
0
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
3
1
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Paderborn (3-5-2)
N. Noll
J. ter Horst
T. Scheller
M. Hansen
L. Curda
L. Ulrich
S. Castañeda
G. Vidović
R. Obermair
M. Pieringer
S. Marino
Hoffenheim (4-4-2)
O. Baumann
V. Coufal
O. Kabak
K. Machida
M. Rots
B. Conté
L. Avdullahu
W. Burger
A. Daghim
A. Hložek
Max Moerstedt
Player Ratings ?
Paderborn
S. CastañedaM8.0
S. MarinoF7.7
S. TiggesF7.6
Hoffenheim
K. MachidaD7.0
B. ContéM6.9
Max MoerstedtF6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Hoffenheim a strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Hoffenheim stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Hoffenheim stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Hoffenheim slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Hoffenheim stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Paderborn have endured a difficult run at home with just one draw from their last five outings, while Hoffenheim have managed only a solitary win away from home in their last five matches. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five home games but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same period. Four players are unavailable for Paderborn, with Hoffenheim having one squad member out ahead of the Bundesliga fixture. Hoffenheim rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2020. The market has remained broadly steady over the 9-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison gives Hoffenheim a strong edge.
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 9 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Paderborn win
Latest market chance 21.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
21.3% → 21.7%
+0.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 21.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
21.3% → 21.6%
+0.3 pts
Hoffenheim win
Latest market chance 56.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
57.4% → 56.7%
−0.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Paderborn
Draw
Hoffenheim
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 9 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
PaderbornHoffenheim
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
13th
3
Games Played
3
0.33
Points/Game
1.00
0.00
Goals/Game
2.00
1.33
Conceded/Game
2.33
11.8
Shots/Game
19.0
2.0
Shots on Target
5.0
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Paderborn at home (2 matches) vs Hoffenheim away (2 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
0.00
1.50
Goals/Game
1.50
1.00
Conceded/Game
3.00
50%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Paderborn
Home form
D
L
L
L
L
Lost 4 straight at home
4 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
3.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Hoffenheim
Away form
L
D
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
3.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Paderborn Wins
0
Draws
2
Hoffenheim Wins
3
Avg Goals
1.4
Paderborn1 – 1Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim3 – 0Paderborn
Paderborn0 – 0Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim1 – 0Paderborn
Hoffenheim1 – 0Paderborn
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Paderbornvs
Hoffenheim
Recent Scoring Profile
0.60
Goals scored / game
1.70
2.30
Goals conceded / game
2.00
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
5/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 66.7%→Latest 66.2%−0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 64.5%→Latest 64.5%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
7 of Paderborn's 10 matches and 7 of Hoffenheim's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?