Union Berlin vs Elversberg Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
2.31
Draw
4.01
Away Win
2.85
Match Prediction
Not enough data available for a statistical comparison on this fixture yet.
Match Analysis
Elversberg arrives at this Bundesliga fixture with an encouraging away record, having secured one win and one draw in their last two outings, while Union Berlin have mixed it up at home with a solitary victory alongside two draws and two defeats across their most recent five matches. Union Berlin have found the net in all five of their latest home games, though they have managed to keep a clean sheet just once during that same span. Elversberg rate stronger on form. Over the 22-day comparison window, Union Berlin's implied win probability has fallen by 1.3 percentage points, while Elversberg's implied win probability has risen by 1.5 percentage points.
Pre-Match Context
Team Availability
Union Berlin
No current absences reported
Elversberg
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Elversberg
Elversberg's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Elversberg win as more likely than it did 22 days ago. Union Berlin remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Union Berlin win
Latest market chance 42.7%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
44.0% → 42.7%
−1.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.3% → 25.1%
−0.2 pts
Elversberg win
Latest market chance 32.2%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
30.7% → 32.2%
+1.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Union Berlin
Draw
Elversberg
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 22 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Union BerlinElversberg
Season Profile
This season
17th
League Position
7th
4
Games Played
4
0.25
Points/Game
1.75
1.00
Goals/Game
2.00
4.25
Conceded/Game
1.75
11.8
Shots/Game
10.2
5.0
Shots on Target
4.5
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Union Berlin at home (2 matches) vs Elversberg away (2 matches)
0.50
Points/Game
2.00
2.00
Goals/Game
2.00
3.00
Conceded/Game
1.50
0%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Union Berlin
Home form
L
D
W
D
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Elversberg
Away form
W
D
Unbeaten in last 2 away
Limited history — only 2 away fixtures on record for Elversberg.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.5
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/2
Scored in
last 2
last 2
1/2
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
No previous meetings on record between Union Berlin and Elversberg.
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Union Berlinvs
Elversberg
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
2.00
2.80
Goals conceded / game
1.75
10/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/4
7/10
Both Teams Scored
3/4
2/10
Failed to Score
1/4
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 57.2%→Latest 60.6%+3.4 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.8%→Latest 62.7%+2.9 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
Elversberg have only 4 completed fixtures on record.
6 of Union Berlin's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?