Union Berlin vs Schalke 04 Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Fri 11 Sep 2026 · 19:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.35
Draw
3.63
Away Win
3.01
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 3
Match Events ?
Union Berlin
Schalke 04
25'
⚽ Robin Gosens
Aljoscha Kemlein 🟨
45'
46'
⚽ Adil Aouchiche (Junior Chukwubuike Adamu)
Marin Ljubičić 🟨
74'
Felix Uduokhai 🟨
78'
Tim Skarke (Tom Rothe) ⚽
90+6'
90+9'
🟨 Loris Karius
90+13'
⚽ Maximilian Wöber (Hwang Hee-Chan)
Match Statistics ?
66%
Ball Possession
34%
20
Total Shots
19
8
Shots on Goal
10
4
Corner Kicks
5
11
Fouls
10
3
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
3
6
Goalkeeper Saves
7
Starting Lineups
Union Berlin (4-1-2-1-2)
F. Rønnow
J. Juranović
L. Querfeld
F. Uduokhai
T. Rothe
A. Kemlein
M. Aebischer
Livan Burcu
R. Khedira
Jeong Woo-Yeong
E. Latte Lath
Schalke 04 (3-4-2-1)
L. Karius
T. Becker
N. Katić
H. Kuruçay
D. Ljubičić
S. El-Faouzi
S. Tanaka
R. Gosens
K. Karaman
A. Aouchiche
J. Adamu
Player Ratings ?
Union Berlin
T. SkarkeM7.4
F. RønnowG6.9
A. SchäferM6.5
Schalke 04
A. AouchicheM8.1
M. WöberD7.4
N. KatićD7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Union Berlin edge recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Union Berlin slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Union Berlin stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Union Berlin stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Union Berlin stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Schalke 04 have struggled on the road with just a solitary win from their last five away fixtures, while Union Berlin have found steadier footing at home with three draws and a win in that same span. Union Berlin have scored in all of their last five home matches but have only kept one clean sheet during that period. Union Berlin rate stronger on attack, defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form. The most recent meeting, on 19 February 2023, ended level, with 4 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 7-day comparison window, Union Berlin's implied win probability has fallen by 2.7 percentage points, while Schalke 04's implied win probability has risen by 2.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Union Berlin
Union Berlin's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Union Berlin win as less likely than it did 7 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Union Berlin win
Latest market chance 39.7%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
46.1% → 39.7%
−6.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.9%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
25.6% → 26.9%
+1.3 pts
Schalke 04 win
Latest market chance 33.4%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
28.3% → 33.4%
+5.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Union Berlin
Draw
Schalke 04
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 7 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Union BerlinSchalke 04
Season Profile
This season
15th
League Position
14th
2
Games Played
2
0.50
Points/Game
0.50
1.50
Goals/Game
0.00
3.50
Conceded/Game
1.50
11.8
Shots/Game
11.8
5.0
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Union Berlin at home (2 matches) vs Schalke 04 away (2 matches)
0.50
Points/Game
1.50
2.00
Goals/Game
1.50
3.00
Conceded/Game
2.00
0%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Union Berlin
Home form
D
L
D
W
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Schalke 04
Away form
L
W
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
4 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
3.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Union Berlin Wins
1
Draws
4
Schalke 04 Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.2
Union Berlin0 – 0Schalke 04
Schalke 041 – 6Union Berlin
Union Berlin0 – 0Schalke 04
Schalke 041 – 1Union Berlin
Union Berlin1 – 1Schalke 04
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Union Berlinvs
Schalke 04
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.40
2.30
Goals conceded / game
2.60
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
2/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 60.8%→Latest 58.0%−2.8 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 62.7%→Latest 61.8%−0.9 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
8 of Union Berlin's 10 matches and 8 of Schalke 04's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?