Birmingham vs Middlesbrough Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
St. Andrew's Stadium
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.85
Draw
3.61
Away Win
2.43
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Birmingham
Middlesbrough
Luis Vasquez 🟨
24'
45'
⚽ Max Arfsten (Amario Cozier-Duberry)
Liam Millar (Jhon Elmer Solís Romero) ⚽
55'
Riley McGree ⚽ (OG)
59'
88'
⚽ A.Malanda
Phil Neumann 🟨
88'
Match Statistics ?
57%
Ball Possession
43%
15
Total Shots
15
5
Shots on Goal
4
5
Corner Kicks
3
11
Fouls
11
2
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
0
3
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Birmingham (4-2-3-1)
J. Beadle
B. Osayi-Samuel
P. Neumann
C. Klarer
A. Cochrane
T. Iwata
J. Solis
Carlos Vicente
J. Stansfield
L. Millar
L. Vázquez
Middlesbrough (3-4-2-1)
R. Vítek
L. Ayling
A. Phillips
A. Malanda
C. Brittain
A. Morris
R. McGree
M. Arfsten
A. Cozier-Duberry
M. Peart-Harris
W. Lankshear
Player Ratings ?
Birmingham
L. MillarM7.8
J. SolisM7.5
M. DuckschF6.7
Middlesbrough
M. ArfstenM7.8
A. Cozier-DuberryM7.5
A. MalandaD6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Middlesbrough edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Middlesbrough stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Middlesbrough slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Middlesbrough stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Birmingham have secured two victories and three draws from their last five outings at home, while Middlesbrough's away record over the same span shows just a single win alongside one draw and three defeats. The hosts have scored in every one of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that identical run. Birmingham carry four players out and two listed as doubtful for the fixture, whereas Middlesbrough face minimal disruption with only one player unavailable and no doubts surrounding their selection. Middlesbrough rate stronger on form and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack, while defence is closely matched. Middlesbrough won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 2 March 2026, having won 5 of the last 5 encounters to Birmingham's 0, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Birmingham's implied win probability has risen by 1.0 percentage points, while Middlesbrough's implied win probability has fallen by 0.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Birmingham
Birmingham's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Birmingham win as more likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Middlesbrough remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Birmingham win
Latest market chance 33.4%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
32.4% → 33.4%
+1.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.1% → 26.8%
−0.3 pts
Middlesbrough win
Latest market chance 39.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
40.4% → 39.9%
−0.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Birmingham
Draw
Middlesbrough
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BirminghamMiddlesbrough
Season Profile
This season
11th
League Position
4th
7
Games Played
7
1.43
Points/Game
2.00
1.43
Goals/Game
2.00
1.29
Conceded/Game
1.43
13.2
Shots/Game
17.5
4.2
Shots on Target
5.1
Home vs Away Context
Birmingham at home (4 matches) vs Middlesbrough away (4 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
1.25
1.75
Goals/Game
1.25
1.75
Conceded/Game
1.25
0%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Birmingham
Home form
W
W
D
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Middlesbrough
Away form
L
L
L
D
W
Lost 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Birmingham Wins
0
Draws
0
Middlesbrough Wins
5
Avg Goals
2.6
Birmingham1 – 3Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough2 – 1Birmingham
Birmingham0 – 1Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough1 – 0Birmingham
Birmingham1 – 3Middlesbrough
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Birminghamvs
Middlesbrough
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.30
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
9/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.6%→Latest 56.6%+4.0 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.1%→Latest 60.7%+3.6 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
3 of Birmingham's 10 matches and 3 of Middlesbrough's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?