Birmingham vs Southampton Head to Head, Prediction
Tue 01 Sep 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.50
Draw
3.50
Away Win
2.84
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Birmingham
Southampton
B. Osayi-Samuel 🟨
45+1'
45+3'
⚽ K. Schlotterbeck (L. Scienza)
A. Priske (P. Roberts) ⚽
55'
72'
🟨 D. Mubama
J. E. Solis Romero 🟨
77'
90+2'
🟨 N. Wood
L. Vazquez 🟨
90+2'
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Birmingham edge defence, Southampton edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Southampton stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Southampton stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Birmingham stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Southampton stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Southampton
Southampton's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Southampton win as more likely than it did 2 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Birmingham remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Birmingham win
Latest market chance 37.9%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
38.8% → 37.9%
−0.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.2% → 27.9%
−0.3 pts
Southampton win
Latest market chance 34.3%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
33.0% → 34.3%
+1.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Birmingham
Draw
Southampton
12 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BirminghamSouthampton
Season Profile
This season
9th
League Position
5th
3
Games Played
3
1.67
Points/Game
2.00
1.33
Goals/Game
3.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.33
13.2
Shots/Game
16.4
4.2
Shots on Target
4.9
Home vs Away Context
Birmingham at home (4 matches) vs Southampton away (4 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
0.50
1.75
Goals/Game
1.00
1.75
Conceded/Game
1.50
0%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Birmingham
Home form
L
W
W
W
D
Won 3 of last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Southampton
Away form
W
W
W
D
L
Won 3 of last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Birmingham Wins
0
Draws
2
Southampton Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.4
Birmingham1 – 1Southampton
Southampton3 – 1Birmingham
Birmingham3 – 4Southampton
Southampton3 – 1Birmingham
Birmingham0 – 0Southampton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Birminghamvs
Southampton
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
2.30
1.00
Goals conceded / game
1.10
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 11 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.8%→Latest 52.0%+1.2 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.3%→Latest 56.7%+0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
7 of Birmingham's 10 matches and 7 of Southampton's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?