Bolton vs Stoke Head to Head | Championship

Match Prediction

No clear statistical edge

The matchup is mixed. Stoke edge recent form and head-to-head, attack and defence are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.

Statistical Edge

No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong

How They Compare

Recent Form

Stoke stronger

HomeAway

Attack

Closely matched

HomeAway

Defence

Closely matched

HomeAway

Head-to-Head

Stoke stronger

HomeAway

Match Analysis

Stoke have recorded just one win and a draw from their last five away fixtures across seasons, whereas Bolton have secured two victories in their last five home outings during the same period. Bolton have scored in three of their last five home matches but have only managed one clean sheet in that same span. Stoke rate stronger on form and head-to-head, while attack and defence are closely matched. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2018. The market has remained broadly steady over the 20-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.

Pre-Match Context

Team Availability

Bolton

No current absences reported

Stoke

No current absences reported

Market View

How the betting market has changed its view of this match

Market direction

Little change in the market

The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 20 days before kickoff.

Movement strength: Steady

Match odds movement

Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest

Bolton win

Latest market chance 34.7%

Steady

Market view unchanged

34.0% → 34.7%

+0.7 pts

Draw

Latest market chance 28.2%

Steady

Market view unchanged

28.4% → 28.2%

−0.2 pts

Stoke win

Latest market chance 37.1%

Steady

Market view unchanged

37.7% → 37.1%

−0.6 pts

Movement over time

Change vs first comparable snapshot

16 snapshots

Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.

Bolton

Draw

Stoke

5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 20 days before kickoff

Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.

Team Comparison

Bolton

Stoke

Season Profile

This season

15th

League Position

8th

Games Played

1.25

Points/Game

1.63

1.38

Goals/Game

1.62

1.88

Conceded/Game

1.50

12.2

Shots/Game

12.0

4.8

Shots on Target

4.0

Home vs Away Context

Bolton at home (4 matches) vs Stoke away (4 matches)

1.50

Points/Game

1.00

1.25

Goals/Game

1.25

Conceded/Game

2.25

50%

Win Rate

25%

Recent Form

Last 5 home / away matches

Bolton

Home form

Lost 3 of last 5 at home

1 of these match from last season.

1.0

Goals scored
per match

1.2

Goals conceded
per match

3/5

Scored in
last 5

1/5

Clean
sheets

Stoke

Away form

Lost 3 of last 5 away

1 of these match from last season.

1.0

Goals scored
per match

2.2

Goals conceded
per match

4/5

Scored in
last 5

0/5

Clean
sheets

Head-to-Head History

Last 5 meetings

Bolton Wins

Draws

Stoke Wins

Avg Goals

2.6

2018-12-292018-2019

Bolton0 – 0Stoke

2018-10-022018-2019

Stoke2 – 0Bolton

2012-05-132011-2012

Stoke2 – 2Bolton

2011-11-062011-2012

Bolton5 – 0Stoke

2011-01-152010-2011

Stoke2 – 0Bolton

Goals & Scoring Trends

Last 10 matches, any venue

Bolton

Stoke

Recent Scoring Profile

1.10

Goals scored / game

1.40

1.70

Goals conceded / game

1.70

5/10

3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)

7/10

4/10

Both Teams Scored

7/10

5/10

Failed to Score

1/10

Market Goal Expectation

2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)

73.4%

3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)

50.7%

4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)

30.8%

BTTSBoth teams score

56.1%

Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.

3+ Goals (Over 2.5)

First comparable 47.9%→Latest 50.5%+2.6 pts

Notable move towards 3+ goals

This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.

4 common bookmakers · first comparable 20 days before kickoff

Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.

Both Teams To Score

First comparable 53.6%→Latest 55.9%+2.3 pts

Notable move towards both teams scoring

This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.

4 common bookmakers · first comparable 20 days before kickoff

Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.

2 of Bolton's 10 matches and 2 of Stoke's 10 matches are from last season.

Match Poll

Who do you think wins?

Bolton vs Stoke Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis