Burnley vs Bristol City Head to Head, Prediction
Turf Moor
Sat 05 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.95
Draw
3.78
Away Win
3.79
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Burnley
Bristol City
Hjalmar Ekdal 🟨
45+2'
A. Ramsey (R. Hatate) ⚽
56'
82'
⚽ R. Dickie (R. Cardines)
Kyle Walker 🟨
83'
Armando Broja 🟨
90+4'
90'
⚽ Y. Hirakawa
Match Statistics ?
53%
Ball Possession
47%
8
Total Shots
15
2
Shots on Goal
4
5
Corner Kicks
8
13
Fouls
7
3
Yellow Cards
0
2
Offsides
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Burnley (4-2-3-1)
M. Weiss
K. Walker
H. Ekdal
M. Alleyne
O. Sonne
U. Raghouber
J. Laurent
A. Ramsey
R. Hatate
L. Ramazani
A. Hountondji
Bristol City (4-2-3-1)
S. Tickle
R. Cardines
R. Dickie
L. Eissat
C. Pring
J. Knight
J. Williams
J. Wallace
G. Yah
S. Twine
L. Tolaj
Player Ratings ?
Burnley
Aaron RamseyM7.6
Ugo RaghouberM7.5
Max AlleyneD7.2
Bristol City
Rob DickieD8.2
Yu HirakawaM7.5
Rio CardinesD7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Burnley edge attack and head-to-head, recent form and defence are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Burnley slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Burnley stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Burnley
Burnley's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Burnley win as less likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Burnley win
Latest market chance 49.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
51.1% → 49.6%
−1.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.8% → 26.2%
+0.4 pts
Bristol City win
Latest market chance 24.2%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
23.1% → 24.2%
+1.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Burnley
Draw
Bristol City
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BurnleyBristol City
Season Profile
This season
23rd
League Position
7th
4
Games Played
4
0.50
Points/Game
1.75
1.25
Goals/Game
1.75
2.50
Conceded/Game
1.50
13.4
Shots/Game
14.2
3.8
Shots on Target
4.6
Home vs Away Context
Burnley at home (4 matches) vs Bristol City away (4 matches)
0.75
Points/Game
1.75
1.25
Goals/Game
2.00
1.50
Conceded/Game
2.00
0%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Burnley
Home form
W
W
W
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Bristol City
Away form
D
D
L
D
W
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Burnley Wins
5
Draws
0
Bristol City Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.4
Burnley1 – 0Bristol City
Bristol City0 – 1Burnley
Bristol City1 – 2Burnley
Burnley2 – 1Bristol City
Burnley4 – 0Bristol City
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Burnleyvs
Bristol City
Recent Scoring Profile
1.90
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.40
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.1%→Latest 51.5%+1.4 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.7%→Latest 55.1%+2.4 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
6 of Burnley's 10 matches and 6 of Bristol City's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?