Burnley vs Derby Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Turf Moor
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.78
Draw
3.88
Away Win
4.52
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Burnley
Derby
Igor Júlio 🟨
31'
Zeki Amdouni (Lucas Pires Silva) ⚽
34'
Anel Ahmedhodzic 🟨
56'
67'
🟨 D. Ozoh
Josh Laurent 🟨
68'
Ugo Raghouber 🟨
86'
87'
🟨 Corey Blackett-Taylor
90+3'
⚽ Mohammed Fuseini (Rhian Brewster)
Match Statistics ?
47%
Ball Possession
53%
6
Total Shots
17
2
Shots on Goal
6
4
Corner Kicks
6
9
Fouls
12
4
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
4
3
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Burnley (4-4-2)
G. Coudert
C. Roberts
A. Ahmedhodžić
Igor
Lucas Pires
M. Edwards
J. Laurent
Max Alleyne
R. Hatate
J. Bruun Larsen
Z. Amdouni
Derby (4-2-3-1)
J. Vickers
J. Ward
S. Langås
D. Sanderson
C. Taylor
A. Mowatt
D. Ozoh
R. Hedges
S. Szmodics
B. Clark
C. Morris
Player Ratings ?
Burnley
Z. AmdouniF7.8
Lucas PiresD7.2
Max AlleyneM6.9
Derby
M. FuseiniF8.2
J. WardD7.5
D. SandersonD6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Burnley
Burnley rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Burnley a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Burnley stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Burnley stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Burnley stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Burnley stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Derby have secured two victories in their last five away fixtures, while Burnley find themselves with two wins and two draws from their corresponding home sample. Burnley have scored in all five of their recent home outings, yet they have failed to keep a single clean sheet during that same period. Burnley face eight confirmed absences alongside one player in doubt, whereas Derby will be without seven players but have no doubts remaining for their squad. Burnley rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 8 April 2025, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 1.4 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Burnley's implied win probability has risen by 1.3 percentage points, while Derby's implied win probability has fallen by 1.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Burnley a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Burnley
Burnley's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Burnley win as more likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Burnley win
Latest market chance 53.6%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
52.3% → 53.6%
+1.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.5% → 25.1%
−0.4 pts
Derby win
Latest market chance 21.2%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
22.2% → 21.2%
−1.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Burnley
Draw
Derby
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BurnleyDerby
Season Profile
This season
24th
League Position
22nd
7
Games Played
7
0.43
Points/Game
0.57
1.14
Goals/Game
0.86
2.29
Conceded/Game
1.86
13.4
Shots/Game
12.2
3.8
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away Context
Burnley at home (4 matches) vs Derby away (4 matches)
0.75
Points/Game
1.00
1.25
Goals/Game
1.00
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.50
0%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Burnley
Home form
W
W
D
D
L
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Derby
Away form
L
W
L
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Burnley Wins
2
Draws
3
Derby Wins
0
Avg Goals
1.4
Derby0 – 0Burnley
Burnley0 – 0Derby
Burnley4 – 1Derby
Derby0 – 0Burnley
Burnley2 – 0Derby
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Burnleyvs
Derby
Recent Scoring Profile
1.80
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.90
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
9/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
0/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.5%→Latest 51.9%+0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.9%→Latest 53.6%−0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
3 of Burnley's 10 matches and 3 of Derby's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?