Burnley vs Middlesbrough Head to Head, Prediction
Turf Moor
Wed 02 Sep 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.82
Draw
3.58
Away Win
2.47
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Burnley
Middlesbrough
23'
⚽ A. Morris (S. Berhalter)
H. Mejbri 🟨
28'
39'
🟨 W. Lankshear
U. Raghouber (Z. Amdouni) ⚽
54'
71'
🟨 A. Jones
U. Raghouber 🟨
90+1'
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Burnley edge recent form and head-to-head, attack and defence are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Burnley stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Burnley stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Middlesbrough win as more likely than it did 3 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Burnley win
Latest market chance 34.1%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
37.5% → 34.1%
−3.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.3% → 26.9%
−0.4 pts
Middlesbrough win
Latest market chance 38.9%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
35.2% → 38.9%
+3.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Burnley
Draw
Middlesbrough
11 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BurnleyMiddlesbrough
Season Profile
This season
23rd
League Position
7th
3
Games Played
3
0.33
Points/Game
2.00
1.33
Goals/Game
2.00
3.00
Conceded/Game
1.33
13.4
Shots/Game
17.5
3.8
Shots on Target
5.1
Home vs Away Context
Burnley at home (4 matches) vs Middlesbrough away (4 matches)
0.75
Points/Game
1.25
1.25
Goals/Game
1.25
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.25
0%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Burnley
Home form
W
W
W
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Middlesbrough
Away form
D
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
4 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Burnley Wins
2
Draws
3
Middlesbrough Wins
0
Avg Goals
1.8
Middlesbrough0 – 0Burnley
Burnley1 – 1Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough1 – 2Burnley
Burnley3 – 1Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough0 – 0Burnley
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Burnleyvs
Middlesbrough
Recent Scoring Profile
2.00
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.20
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 11 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 49.0%→Latest 54.5%+5.5 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.3%→Latest 58.7%+5.4 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
7 of Burnley's 10 matches and 7 of Middlesbrough's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?