Charlton vs Bristol City Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
The Valley
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
3.14
Draw
3.28
Away Win
2.34
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Bristol City edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Bristol City stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Bristol City stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Bristol City stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Charlton have enjoyed an impressive unbeaten run at home in their last five outings, while Bristol City have managed just two victories from the same number of away fixtures. The Addicks have scored in three of their last five home matches but have also kept three clean sheets during that identical period. Bristol City rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Bristol City won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 3 April 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Charlton's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 20-day comparison window, Charlton's implied win probability has risen by 0.9 percentage points, while Bristol City's implied win probability has fallen by 1.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Team Availability
Charlton
No current absences reported
Bristol City
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Bristol City
Bristol City's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Bristol City win as less likely than it did 20 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Charlton win
Latest market chance 29.8%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
28.9% → 29.8%
+0.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.3% → 28.7%
+0.4 pts
Bristol City win
Latest market chance 41.5%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
42.8% → 41.5%
−1.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Charlton
Draw
Bristol City
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 20 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CharltonBristol City
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
9th
8
Games Played
8
1.50
Points/Game
1.63
0.88
Goals/Game
1.38
1.25
Conceded/Game
1.50
9.6
Shots/Game
14.2
2.6
Shots on Target
4.6
Home vs Away Context
Charlton at home (4 matches) vs Bristol City away (4 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.75
0.75
Goals/Game
2.00
0.25
Conceded/Game
2.00
50%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Charlton
Home form
W
W
W
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Bristol City
Away form
L
D
W
W
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Charlton Wins
1
Draws
1
Bristol City Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.4
Charlton1 – 2Bristol City
Bristol City0 – 0Charlton
Charlton3 – 2Bristol City
Bristol City2 – 1Charlton
Charlton0 – 1Bristol City
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Charltonvs
Bristol City
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.40
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.1%→Latest 46.0%−1.1 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 51.8%→Latest 51.6%−0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
2 of Charlton's 10 matches and 2 of Bristol City's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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