Derby vs Birmingham Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Pride Park
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.81
Draw
3.31
Away Win
2.10
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Derby
Birmingham
Mohammed Fuseini 🟨
19'
21'
🟨 Alex Cochrane
Bobby Clark (Sammie Szmodics) ⚽
40'
42'
⚽ Carlos Vicente (Liam Millar)
44'
🟨 August Priske
63'
⚽ Paik Seung-Ho (Liam Millar)
90+4'
🟨 Carlos Vicente
Match Statistics ?
59%
Ball Possession
41%
18
Total Shots
19
4
Shots on Goal
9
10
Corner Kicks
4
8
Fouls
12
1
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
1
6
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Derby (4-2-3-1)
J. Widell Zetterström
J. Ward
S. Langås
E. Cashin
C. Taylor
B. Clark
D. Ozoh
M. Fuseini
S. Szmodics
H. Meister
C. Morris
Birmingham (4-2-3-1)
J. Beadle
B. Osayi-Samuel
P. Neumann
C. Klarer
A. Cochrane
T. Iwata
J. Solis
Carlos Vicente
J. Stansfield
L. Millar
A. Priske
Player Ratings ?
Derby
B. ClarkM7.5
J. WardD7.2
E. CashinD7.1
Birmingham
L. MillarM8.3
Paik Seung-HoM7.5
Carlos VicenteM6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Derby edge head-to-head, Birmingham edge recent form, attack and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Birmingham stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Birmingham slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Birmingham stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Derby stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Derby have secured two victories from their last five home outings, whereas Birmingham have managed just a single win across their corresponding away fixtures in that same period. The Rams have found the net in four of their last five matches at home but have kept just two clean sheets during that identical run. Derby face five confirmed absences alongside one player under doubt, while Birmingham will be without three teammates and have another listed as doubtful for the fixture. Birmingham rate stronger on form and defence, with a slight advantage in attack, while Derby rate stronger on head-to-head. Derby won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 21 March 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Birmingham's 2, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. The overall statistical comparison gives Birmingham a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Derby
Derby's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Derby win as less likely than it did 4 days ago. Birmingham remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Derby win
Latest market chance 26.1%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
29.7% → 26.1%
−3.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.4% → 28.8%
+0.4 pts
Birmingham win
Latest market chance 45.1%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
41.9% → 45.1%
+3.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Derby
Draw
Birmingham
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
DerbyBirmingham
Season Profile
This season
22nd
League Position
14th
6
Games Played
6
0.67
Points/Game
1.17
0.83
Goals/Game
1.33
1.83
Conceded/Game
1.33
12.2
Shots/Game
13.2
3.6
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away Context
Derby at home (4 matches) vs Birmingham away (4 matches)
0.25
Points/Game
1.75
0.75
Goals/Game
1.25
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
0%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Derby
Home form
W
L
D
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Birmingham
Away form
D
D
D
W
L
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Derby Wins
1
Draws
2
Birmingham Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.4
Derby1 – 0Birmingham
Birmingham1 – 1Derby
Derby2 – 2Birmingham
Birmingham2 – 0Derby
Derby1 – 2Birmingham
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Derbyvs
Birmingham
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.70
Goals conceded / game
1.20
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
9/10
3/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.4%→Latest 45.9%−1.5 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.7%→Latest 51.0%−1.7 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
4 of Derby's 10 matches and 4 of Birmingham's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?