Derby vs West Brom Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Pride Park
Wed 09 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.10
Draw
3.38
Away Win
2.38
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Derby
West Brom
10'
🟨 Harry Whitwell
16'
⚽ Aune Heggebo (J. Morgan)
26'
🟨 Brayann Pereira
34'
🟥 Brayann Pereira
82'
🟨 J. Morgan
Match Statistics ?
67%
Ball Possession
33%
13
Total Shots
4
3
Shots on Goal
1
11
Corner Kicks
3
12
Fouls
9
0
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
1
4
Offsides
4
0
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Derby (4-2-3-1)
J. Widell Zetterström
D. Sanderson
S. Langås
E. Cashin
C. Taylor
A. Mowatt
D. Ozoh
R. Hedges
B. Clark
M. Fuseini
S. Szmodics
West Brom (4-4-2)
M. O’Leary
B. Pereira
N. Phillips
G. Campbell
C. Styles
Harry Whitwell
J. Molumby
O. Diakité
I. Price
A. Heggebø
J. Morgan
Player Ratings ?
Derby
J. WardM7.1
E. CashinD7.1
A. MowattM7.0
West Brom
A. HeggebøF7.8
N. PhillipsD7.4
M. O’LearyG7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Derby edge head-to-head, West Brom edge recent form, attack and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
West Brom stronger
HomeAway
Attack
West Brom slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
West Brom stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Derby stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Derby have matched West Brom's recent output at home and away over their last five outings, with each side recording two wins, a draw and two defeats in that span. Derby have scored in four of their last five home matches while also keeping two clean sheets in that same period. Derby face a deeper selection headache than West Brom, with five players out and one doubtful compared to just one unavailable option for the visitors. West Brom rate stronger on form and defence, with a slight advantage in attack, while Derby rate stronger on head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 23 January 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 2-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
53%
Derby yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Derby
Derby's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Derby win as less likely than it did 2 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. West Brom remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Derby win
Latest market chance 31.0%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
31.8% → 31.0%
−0.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.3% → 28.4%
+0.1 pts
West Brom win
Latest market chance 40.6%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
39.8% → 40.6%
+0.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Derby
Draw
West Brom
13 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
DerbyWest Brom
Season Profile
This season
21st
League Position
7th
5
Games Played
5
0.80
Points/Game
2.00
1.00
Goals/Game
1.60
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.20
12.2
Shots/Game
9.9
3.6
Shots on Target
3.8
Home vs Away Context
Derby at home (4 matches) vs West Brom away (4 matches)
0.25
Points/Game
1.50
0.75
Goals/Game
1.00
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.25
0%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Derby
Home form
W
W
L
D
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
West Brom
Away form
D
W
L
W
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Derby Wins
4
Draws
1
West Brom Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.2
Derby1 – 1West Brom
West Brom0 – 1Derby
West Brom1 – 3Derby
Derby2 – 1West Brom
Derby1 – 0West Brom
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Derbyvs
West Brom
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.80
Goals conceded / game
0.80
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 12 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 49.6%→Latest 49.1%−0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.7%→Latest 54.5%−0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Derby's 10 matches and 5 of West Brom's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?