Lincoln vs Swansea Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Sincil Bank
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.96
Draw
3.47
Away Win
2.42
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Lincoln
Swansea
Ben House 🟨
6'
Ryley Towler 🟨
25'
Reeco Hackett-Fairchild ⚽ (P)
39'
47'
⚽ Moussa Kounfolo Yeo (melker widell)
51'
⚽ Stephen Eustáquio (Filip Lissah)
C. Cohen 🟨
84'
90'
🟨 Filip Lissah
Match Statistics ?
58%
Ball Possession
42%
13
Total Shots
10
4
Shots on Goal
4
2
Corner Kicks
1
12
Fouls
11
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Lincoln (3-4-2-1)
G. Wickens
D. Elerewe
S. Bradley
R. Towler
A. Coubiș
T. Bayliss
C. McGrandles
A. Reach
R. Hackett
B. House
F. Draper
Swansea (4-3-3)
L. Vigouroux
F. Lissah
B. Cabango
S. Welsh
J. Tymon
E. Just
M. Stamenić
S. Eustáquio
M. Yeo
A. Idah
M. Widell
Player Ratings ?
Lincoln
R. HackettM7.1
C. OgbeneF6.8
M. LadefogedF6.7
Swansea
S. EustáquioM8.0
M. YeoF7.8
L. VigourouxG7.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Lincoln edge head-to-head, Swansea edge recent form and attack, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Swansea stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Swansea stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Lincoln stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Lincoln face a tricky test at home against Swansea, who have secured three wins and drawn once in their last five away fixtures, while Lincoln remain winless with two draws and a defeat in their most recent three outings. Lincoln have scored in two of their last three home matches but have only kept one clean sheet during that same period. Both squads carry injury concerns ahead of the clash, with Lincoln listing two players as unavailable and one as doubtful, while Swansea also have two confirmed absences from their matchday squad. Swansea rate stronger on form and attack, while Lincoln rate stronger on head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2005. Over the 6-day comparison window, Lincoln's implied win probability has fallen by 1.9 percentage points, while Swansea's implied win probability has risen by 1.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
46%
Swansea yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Lincoln
Lincoln's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Lincoln win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. Swansea remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Lincoln win
Latest market chance 32.7%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
34.6% → 32.7%
−1.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.7% → 28.4%
+0.7 pts
Swansea win
Latest market chance 38.9%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
37.8% → 38.9%
+1.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Lincoln
Draw
Swansea
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
LincolnSwansea
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
3rd
7
Games Played
7
1.57
Points/Game
2.00
0.86
Goals/Game
1.57
0.86
Conceded/Game
0.71
12.6
Shots/Game
12.0
3.0
Shots on Target
4.9
Home vs Away Context
Lincoln at home (4 matches) vs Swansea away (4 matches)
0.50
Points/Game
2.25
0.75
Goals/Game
2.00
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.25
0%
Win Rate
75%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Lincoln
Home form
L
D
D
Winless in last 3 at home
Limited history — only 3 home fixtures on record for Lincoln.
0.67
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.33
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/3
Scored in
last 3
last 3
1/3
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Swansea
Away form
W
D
W
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Lincoln Wins
2
Draws
1
Swansea Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.2
Lincoln1 – 0Swansea
Swansea1 – 0Lincoln
Lincoln2 – 1Swansea
Swansea2 – 2Lincoln
Swansea2 – 0Lincoln
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Lincolnvs
Swansea
Recent Scoring Profile
0.86
Goals scored / game
1.70
0.86
Goals conceded / game
0.80
2/7
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
3/7
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/7
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.1%→Latest 49.2%−0.9 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.5%→Latest 54.7%−0.8 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Lincoln have only 7 completed fixtures on record.
3 of Swansea's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?