Norwich vs Bolton Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Carrow Road
Sun 20 Sep 2026 · 13:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.49
Draw
4.89
Away Win
6.13
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 4
Match Events ?
Norwich
Bolton
Mohamed Toure (Andre Brooks) ⚽
5'
8'
⚽ Thierry Gale (Ruben Rodrigues)
Ruairi McConville (Oscar Schwartau) ⚽
19'
42'
⚽ Gaizka Larrazabal (Max Conway)
47'
⚽ Sam Dalby (Kyliane Dong)
Jack Stacey (Paris Maghoma) ⚽
61'
72'
⚽ Atsuki Ito (Samuel Iling)
Match Statistics ?
59%
Ball Possession
41%
10
Total Shots
9
4
Shots on Goal
5
4
Corner Kicks
2
11
Fouls
12
0
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
8
Offsides
4
1
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Norwich (4-2-3-1)
V. Kovačević
J. Stacey
Ruairi McConville
J. Córdoba
B. Chrisene
K. McLean
P. Mattsson
A. Brooks
A. Musaba
O. Schwartau
M. Touré
Bolton (4-2-3-1)
G. Bazunu
Gaizka Larrazabal
E. Toal
B. Davies
M. Conway
J. Sheehan
E. Erhahon
K. Dong
Ruben Rodrigues
T. Gale
S. Dalby
Player Ratings ?
Norwich
M. TouréF7.5
Ruairi McConvilleD7.1
O. SchwartauM6.7
Bolton
S. DalbyF7.9
T. GaleM7.3
Gaizka LarrazabalD6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Norwich
Norwich rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Norwich an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Norwich stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Norwich stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Norwich stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Norwich stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Bolton arrive with a difficult away record of just one draw and four losses in their last five outings, whereas Norwich have enjoyed a much stronger home form with three wins from the same sample size. The Canaries have found the net in all five of their recent home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that identical span. Both squads carry three players unavailable for selection, with neither side listing any doubtful figures ahead of this Championship clash. Norwich rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2019. Over the 7-day comparison window, Norwich's implied win probability has risen by 5.3 percentage points, while Bolton's implied win probability has fallen by 3.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Norwich.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Bolton losing run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
1
Bolton points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Norwich
Norwich's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Norwich win as more likely than it did 7 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Norwich win
Latest market chance 65.5%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
60.2% → 65.5%
+5.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 19.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
21.6% → 19.6%
−2.0 pts
Bolton win
Latest market chance 14.9%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
18.2% → 14.9%
−3.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Norwich
Draw
Bolton
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 7 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
NorwichBolton
Season Profile
This season
15th
League Position
21st
7
Games Played
7
1.29
Points/Game
1.00
1.86
Goals/Game
1.00
1.86
Conceded/Game
1.71
15.0
Shots/Game
12.2
5.5
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away Context
Norwich at home (4 matches) vs Bolton away (4 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
1.00
2.50
Goals/Game
1.50
2.00
Conceded/Game
2.50
50%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Norwich
Home form
W
D
L
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Bolton
Away form
L
L
D
L
L
Winless in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Norwich Wins
3
Draws
1
Bolton Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.0
Bolton0 – 4Norwich
Norwich3 – 2Bolton
Norwich0 – 0Bolton
Bolton2 – 1Norwich
Bolton1 – 2Norwich
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Norwichvs
Bolton
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
0.70
1.70
Goals conceded / game
1.60
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
2/10
Failed to Score
6/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 60.5%→Latest 64.1%+3.6 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.6%→Latest 57.6%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Norwich's 10 matches and 3 of Bolton's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?