Southampton vs Portsmouth Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
St. Mary's Stadium
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 12:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.61
Draw
4.15
Away Win
5.14
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Southampton edge recent form and attack, Portsmouth edge head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Southampton stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Southampton stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Portsmouth slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Southampton have secured five straight victories across their home fixtures in this sample, while Portsmouth have recorded two wins and a draw from five away outings during their recent travels. The Saints have found the net in each of their last five home matches yet have failed to keep a clean sheet in that same run. Southampton rate stronger on form and attack, while Portsmouth hold a slight advantage in head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 25 January 2026, ended level, with 4 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 21-day comparison window, Southampton's implied win probability has fallen by 4.0 percentage points, while Portsmouth's implied win probability has risen by 3.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Team Availability
Southampton
No current absences reported
Portsmouth
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Southampton
Southampton's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Southampton win as less likely than it did 21 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Southampton win
Latest market chance 58.3%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
62.3% → 58.3%
−4.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.3%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
22.3% → 23.3%
+1.0 pts
Portsmouth win
Latest market chance 18.4%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
15.4% → 18.4%
+3.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Southampton
Draw
Portsmouth
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 21 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SouthamptonPortsmouth
Season Profile
This season
4th
League Position
19th
8
Games Played
7
1.75
Points/Game
1.14
2.38
Goals/Game
1.29
1.25
Conceded/Game
1.43
16.4
Shots/Game
15.9
4.9
Shots on Target
4.6
Home vs Away Context
Southampton at home (4 matches) vs Portsmouth away (3 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
1.33
3.75
Goals/Game
1.33
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
100%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Southampton
Home form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight at home
1 of these match from last season.
3.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Portsmouth
Away form
L
W
W
L
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Southampton Wins
0
Draws
4
Portsmouth Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.6
Portsmouth1 – 1Southampton
Southampton0 – 0Portsmouth
Southampton2 – 2Portsmouth
Portsmouth1 – 1Southampton
Portsmouth4 – 1Southampton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Southamptonvs
Portsmouth
Recent Scoring Profile
2.10
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.10
Goals conceded / game
1.70
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
9/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 58.4%→Latest 57.0%−1.4 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.7%→Latest 54.9%+1.2 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
2 of Southampton's 10 matches and 3 of Portsmouth's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?