Southampton vs Swansea Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Tue 08 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.83
Draw
3.88
Away Win
4.33
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Southampton
Swansea
Finn Azaz (Flynn Downes) ⚽
9'
Cyle Larin (James Bree) ⚽
33'
52'
⚽ (P) Zan Vipotnik
54'
🟨 Ronald Pereira Martins
Léo Scienza (Kuryu Matsuki) ⚽
78'
Match Statistics ?
49%
Ball Possession
51%
16
Total Shots
10
4
Shots on Goal
2
9
Corner Kicks
3
10
Fouls
10
0
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
5
Offsides
3
1
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Southampton (4-2-3-1)
Daniel Peretz
J. Bree
N. Wood-Gordon
K. Schlotterbeck
R. Manning
F. Downes
J. Ward-Prowse
T. Fellows
F. Azaz
Léo Scienza
C. Larin
Swansea (4-2-3-1)
L. Vigouroux
F. Lissah
B. Cabango
S. Welsh
J. Tymon
J. Fulton
M. Stamenić
Joseph Okopu
E. Just
M. Yeo
Z. Vipotnik
Player Ratings ?
Southampton
C. LarinF8.2
Léo ScienzaM7.8
F. AzazM7.4
Swansea
Z. VipotnikF6.8
Eom Ji-SungF6.5
M. StamenićM6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Southampton edge attack and head-to-head, Swansea edge recent form and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Swansea slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Southampton stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Swansea stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Southampton stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Swansea have enjoyed a flawless away run in their last five outings with four victories and just one draw, while Southampton remain unbeaten at home during their own recent five-match spell, securing three wins alongside two draws. Southampton have found the net in every one of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet across that same period. The Saints face just one availability concern, whereas Swansea carry three players with confirmed absences ahead of this Championship fixture. Swansea rate stronger on defence, with a slight advantage in form, while Southampton rate stronger on attack and head-to-head. Southampton won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 18 April 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Swansea's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 1-day comparison window, Southampton's implied win probability has risen by 1.1 percentage points, while Swansea's implied win probability has fallen by 0.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
60%
Swansea yellow cards after 75'
13
Swansea points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Southampton
Southampton's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Southampton win as more likely than it did 1 day ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Southampton win
Latest market chance 51.3%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
50.2% → 51.3%
+1.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.6% → 25.2%
−0.4 pts
Swansea win
Latest market chance 23.5%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
24.3% → 23.5%
−0.8 pts
13 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 1 day before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SouthamptonSwansea
Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
1st
5
Games Played
5
1.60
Points/Game
2.20
2.20
Goals/Game
1.40
1.20
Conceded/Game
0.20
16.4
Shots/Game
12.0
4.9
Shots on Target
4.9
Home vs Away Context
Southampton at home (4 matches) vs Swansea away (4 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
2.25
3.75
Goals/Game
2.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.25
100%
Win Rate
75%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Southampton
Home form
D
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
3 of these matches from last season.
2.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Swansea
Away form
W
W
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Southampton Wins
4
Draws
1
Swansea Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.6
Swansea1 – 2Southampton
Southampton0 – 0Swansea
Swansea1 – 3Southampton
Southampton5 – 0Swansea
Swansea0 – 1Southampton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Southamptonvs
Swansea
Recent Scoring Profile
2.00
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.20
Goals conceded / game
0.60
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
9/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 12 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 53.9%→Latest 54.3%+0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.2%→Latest 55.9%−0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Southampton's 10 matches and 5 of Swansea's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?