Swansea vs Burnley Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Swansea.com Stadium
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.05
Draw
3.57
Away Win
3.68
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Swansea
Burnley
Adam Idah ⚽
14'
Moussa Kounfolo Yeo (Elijah Just) ⚽
33'
58'
⚽ Largie Ramazani (Igor Júlio)
59'
🟨 Lucas Pires Silva
Moussa Kounfolo Yeo 🟨
59'
Zan Vipotnik (Ronald Pereira Martins) ⚽
68'
Filip Lissah 🟨
72'
Match Statistics ?
54%
Ball Possession
46%
13
Total Shots
18
6
Shots on Goal
6
3
Corner Kicks
6
7
Fouls
7
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
4
5
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Swansea (4-2-3-1)
L. Vigouroux
J. Key
B. Cabango
S. Welsh
J. Tymon
S. Eustáquio
M. Stamenić
E. Just
M. Widell
M. Yeo
A. Idah
Burnley (4-2-3-1)
M. Weiß
O. Sonne
K. Walker
Igor
C. Roberts
U. Raghouber
Max Alleyne
A. Ramsey
J. Laurent
L. Ramazani
Z. Amdouni
Player Ratings ?
Swansea
A. IdahF7.9
Z. VipotnikF7.6
M. YeoM7.5
Burnley
IgorD7.4
L. RamazaniM6.9
A. BrojaF6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Swansea edge recent form and defence, Burnley edge attack and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Swansea stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Burnley slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Swansea stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Burnley stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Burnley have recorded two wins and a draw from their last five away outings, while Swansea have secured two victories and two draws in their most recent five home matches. Swansea have scored in three of their last five home games but have also kept three clean sheets during that same run. Three Swansea players are unavailable for selection, whereas Burnley face nine absences ahead of the fixture. Swansea rate stronger on form and defence, while Burnley rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. Burnley won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 15 March 2025, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Swansea's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
55%
Swansea yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Burnley
Burnley's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Burnley win as less likely than it did 4 days ago. Swansea remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Swansea win
Latest market chance 46.0%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
43.0% → 46.0%
+3.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.7% → 27.3%
+0.6 pts
Burnley win
Latest market chance 26.6%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
30.4% → 26.6%
−3.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Swansea
Draw
Burnley
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SwanseaBurnley
Season Profile
This season
4th
League Position
23rd
6
Games Played
6
1.83
Points/Game
0.50
1.33
Goals/Game
1.17
0.67
Conceded/Game
2.17
12.0
Shots/Game
13.4
4.9
Shots on Target
3.8
Home vs Away Context
Swansea at home (4 matches) vs Burnley away (4 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
0.25
1.25
Goals/Game
1.00
0.25
Conceded/Game
2.75
50%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Swansea
Home form
L
W
D
W
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Burnley
Away form
W
W
L
L
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Swansea Wins
1
Draws
0
Burnley Wins
4
Avg Goals
2.2
Swansea0 – 2Burnley
Burnley1 – 0Swansea
Swansea1 – 2Burnley
Burnley4 – 0Swansea
Swansea1 – 0Burnley
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Swanseavs
Burnley
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.90
0.90
Goals conceded / game
1.60
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
9/10
2/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.1%→Latest 50.6%−1.5 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.3%→Latest 54.9%−1.4 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
4 of Swansea's 10 matches and 4 of Burnley's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?