Watford vs Stoke Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Vicarage Road
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.37
Draw
3.47
Away Win
3.05
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Watford
Stoke
Iker Bravo 🟨
19'
33'
🟨 El Hadji Soumare
45+4'
⚽ Jack Mcglynn
57'
⚽ Eric Junior Bocat (Lamine Cissé)
82'
🟨 George Hirst
Amin Nabizada (Edo Kayembe) ⚽
90+1'
Amin Nabizada 🟨
90+3'
Match Statistics ?
40%
Ball Possession
60%
6
Total Shots
18
2
Shots on Goal
6
5
Corner Kicks
8
14
Fouls
6
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
3
4
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Watford (4-2-3-1)
F. Ravaglia
K. Keben
M. Pollock
S. Coulibaly
J. Zemura
E. Kayembe
H. Kyprianou
O. Maamma
Iker Bravo
S. Mavididi
M. Doumbia
Stoke (3-5-2)
V. Johansson
B. Wilmot
M. Talovierov
L. Graham
B. Johnson
J. Devenny
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré
E. Galbraith
E. Bocat
L. Cissé
J. McGlynn
Player Ratings ?
Watford
Amin NabizadaF6.8
F. RavagliaG6.7
R. VataF6.7
Stoke
J. McGlynnF8.2
E. BocatM8.2
L. CisséF7.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Watford edge defence and head-to-head, recent form and attack are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Watford slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Watford slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Watford have secured just a single victory from their last five home outings, while Stoke remain winless in their most recent five away fixtures. The Hornets have found the net in three of their last five home matches but have conceded in every one of those same five games. Watford face a significant absence list with five players unavailable and one doubtful, whereas Stoke have two confirmed out and three listed as doubtful for the match. Stoke rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in attack, while Watford hold a slight advantage in head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Stoke won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 14 March 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Watford's 2, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Stoke losing run
1
Stoke points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Watford
Watford's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Watford win as more likely than it did 4 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Watford win
Latest market chance 40.2%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
37.1% → 40.2%
+3.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.3% → 28.3%
±0.0 pts
Stoke win
Latest market chance 31.5%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
34.6% → 31.5%
−3.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Watford
Draw
Stoke
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
WatfordStoke
Season Profile
This season
13th
League Position
15th
6
Games Played
6
1.33
Points/Game
1.17
1.00
Goals/Game
1.50
1.17
Conceded/Game
1.67
11.6
Shots/Game
12.0
3.5
Shots on Target
4.0
Home vs Away Context
Watford at home (4 matches) vs Stoke away (4 matches)
1.75
Points/Game
1.00
1.50
Goals/Game
1.25
1.25
Conceded/Game
2.25
50%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Watford
Home form
L
L
W
D
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Stoke
Away form
L
L
L
L
D
Winless in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Watford Wins
2
Draws
2
Stoke Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.0
Stoke3 – 1Watford
Watford1 – 0Stoke
Stoke0 – 0Watford
Watford3 – 0Stoke
Watford1 – 1Stoke
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Watfordvs
Stoke
Recent Scoring Profile
0.70
Goals scored / game
1.10
2.10
Goals conceded / game
2.00
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
5/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.6%→Latest 50.0%+2.4 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.5%→Latest 55.3%+1.8 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
4 of Watford's 10 matches and 4 of Stoke's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?