West Brom vs Birmingham Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
The Hawthorns
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
2.36
Draw
3.49
Away Win
2.95
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. West Brom edge defence, Birmingham edge attack, recent form and head-to-head are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Birmingham stronger
HomeAway
Defence
West Brom stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Birmingham have secured two wins from their last five away outings, while West Brom remain unbeaten at home across that same span. The Iron have scored in four of their last five matches at the ground and kept a clean sheet twice in that period. Birmingham rate stronger on attack, while West Brom rate stronger on defence, while form and head-to-head are closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 10 February 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. Over the 20-day comparison window, West Brom's implied win probability has fallen by 0.8 percentage points, while Birmingham's implied win probability has risen by 1.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Team Availability
West Brom
No current absences reported
Birmingham
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Birmingham
Birmingham's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Birmingham win as more likely than it did 20 days ago. West Brom remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
West Brom win
Latest market chance 41.0%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
41.8% → 41.0%
−0.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.4%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
28.4% → 27.4%
−1.0 pts
Birmingham win
Latest market chance 31.6%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
29.8% → 31.6%
+1.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
West Brom
Draw
Birmingham
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 20 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
West BromBirmingham
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
11th
8
Games Played
8
1.75
Points/Game
1.38
1.25
Goals/Game
1.50
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.38
9.9
Shots/Game
13.2
3.8
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away Context
West Brom at home (4 matches) vs Birmingham away (4 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.75
1.50
Goals/Game
1.25
0.75
Conceded/Game
1.00
50%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
West Brom
Home form
D
W
D
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Birmingham
Away form
D
D
W
L
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
West Brom Wins
1
Draws
2
Birmingham Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.8
Birmingham0 – 0West Brom
West Brom1 – 1Birmingham
West Brom1 – 0Birmingham
Birmingham3 – 1West Brom
Birmingham2 – 0West Brom
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
West Bromvs
Birmingham
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.00
Goals conceded / game
1.30
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
9/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.4%→Latest 52.4%+5.0 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.3%→Latest 57.4%+4.1 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
2 of West Brom's 10 matches and 2 of Birmingham's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?