West Ham vs Derby Head to Head, Prediction
London Stadium
Sat 05 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.42
Draw
4.90
Away Win
7.23
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 0
Match Events ?
West Ham
Derby
J. Piroe (T. Castellanos) ⚽
6'
21'
🟨 Alex Mowatt
77'
🟨 Mohammed Fuseini
E. Austbo ⚽
87'
M. Kante (E. Austbo) ⚽
90'
Match Statistics ?
52%
Ball Possession
48%
20
Total Shots
4
7
Shots on Goal
0
5
Corner Kicks
6
6
Fouls
16
0
Yellow Cards
2
1
Offsides
0
0
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
West Ham (4-4-2)
M. Hermansen
J. Veltman
K. Mavropanos
M. Kilman
O. Scarles
J. Bowen
D. Mukasa
A. Engels
M. Solomon
J. Piroe
T. Castellanos
Derby (4-2-3-1)
J. Widell Zetterstrom
R. Nyambe
S. Langas
D. Sanderson
C. Taylor
A. Mowatt
O. Fraulo
R. Hedges
S. Szmodics
R. Brewster
H. Meister
Player Ratings ?
West Ham
Arne EngelsM8.9
Valentín CastellanosF8.2
Max KilmanD8.0
Derby
Jacob Widell ZetterströmG6.9
Sammie SzmodicsM6.7
Dion SandersonD6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
West Ham
West Ham rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving West Ham a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
West Ham stronger
HomeAway
Attack
West Ham stronger
HomeAway
Defence
West Ham stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
West Ham stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from West Ham
West Ham's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a West Ham win as less likely than it did 3 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
West Ham win
Latest market chance 67.2%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
68.7% → 67.2%
−1.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 19.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
19.4% → 19.8%
+0.4 pts
Derby win
Latest market chance 12.9%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
11.9% → 12.9%
+1.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
West Ham
Draw
Derby
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
West HamDerby
Season Profile
This season
13th
League Position
17th
4
Games Played
4
1.25
Points/Game
1.00
2.00
Goals/Game
1.25
1.75
Conceded/Game
1.75
15.8
Shots/Game
12.2
5.9
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away Context
West Ham at home (4 matches) vs Derby away (4 matches)
2.25
Points/Game
1.00
3.50
Goals/Game
1.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.50
75%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
West Ham
Home form
D
W
W
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
3.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Derby
Away form
L
L
W
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
West Ham Wins
3
Draws
0
Derby Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.6
Derby2 – 1West Ham
West Ham3 – 1Derby
West Ham2 – 1Derby
Derby0 – 5West Ham
West Ham1 – 2Derby
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
West Hamvs
Derby
Recent Scoring Profile
2.60
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.50
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
0/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.7%→Latest 55.8%+1.1 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 46.7%→Latest 49.5%+2.8 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
6 of West Ham's 10 matches and 6 of Derby's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?