Wrexham vs Burnley Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Racecourse Ground
Tue 08 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.05
Draw
3.69
Away Win
3.63
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Wrexham
Burnley
Issa Kabore 🟨
14'
26'
⚽ Zeki Amdouni (Largie Ramazani)
Jacques Ekomié (Issa Kabore) ⚽
55'
65'
🟨 Aaron Ramsey
Dominic Hyam 🟨
84'
86'
🟨 Lucas Pires Silva
90'
🟨 Reo Hatate
Match Statistics ?
52%
Ball Possession
48%
15
Total Shots
19
5
Shots on Goal
4
4
Corner Kicks
4
12
Fouls
15
2
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Wrexham (3-4-2-1)
A. Patterson
M. Cleworth
D. Hyam
C. Doyle
I. Kaboré
M. James
B. Whiteman
J. Ekomié
J. Windass
L. O'Brien
K. Moore
Burnley (4-2-3-1)
M. Weiß
O. Sonne
K. Walker
Igor
C. Roberts
U. Raghouber
Max Alleyne
A. Ramsey
J. Laurent
L. Ramazani
Z. Amdouni
Player Ratings ?
Wrexham
M. CleworthD7.3
J. EkomiéM7.0
O. RathboneM6.9
Burnley
Z. AmdouniF8.2
M. WeißG7.2
L. RamazaniM7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Wrexham edge defence, Burnley edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Burnley slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Burnley stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Wrexham stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Burnley stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Burnley have recorded two wins and a draw from their last five away fixtures, while Wrexham have managed just one victory in their corresponding home outings over the same span. Wrexham have scored in five of their last five home matches but have only kept one clean sheet in that identical sample. The hosts face availability concerns with two players out and three listed as doubtful, whereas Burnley have nine confirmed absences with no doubts surrounding their squad. Burnley rate stronger on attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form, while Wrexham rate stronger on defence. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2000. Over the 1-day comparison window, Wrexham's implied win probability has risen by 0.6 percentage points, while Burnley's implied win probability has fallen by 0.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
45%
Burnley yellow cards after 75'
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Burnley
Burnley's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Burnley win as less likely than it did 1 day ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Wrexham remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Wrexham win
Latest market chance 46.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
46.2% → 46.8%
+0.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.4% → 26.7%
+0.3 pts
Burnley win
Latest market chance 26.5%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
27.4% → 26.5%
−0.9 pts
13 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 1 day before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
WrexhamBurnley
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
24th
5
Games Played
5
1.20
Points/Game
0.40
1.20
Goals/Game
1.20
0.80
Conceded/Game
2.40
10.9
Shots/Game
13.4
3.5
Shots on Target
3.8
Home vs Away Context
Wrexham at home (4 matches) vs Burnley away (4 matches)
1.25
Points/Game
0.25
1.25
Goals/Game
1.00
1.25
Conceded/Game
2.75
25%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Wrexham
Home form
L
W
D
D
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Burnley
Away form
D
W
W
L
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Wrexham Wins
1
Draws
1
Burnley Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.8
Wrexham0 – 1Burnley
Burnley5 – 0Wrexham
Wrexham1 – 1Burnley
Burnley2 – 1Wrexham
Burnley1 – 2Wrexham
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Wrexhamvs
Burnley
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
2.00
1.10
Goals conceded / game
1.60
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
9/10
2/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 12 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.9%→Latest 50.7%−2.2 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.8%→Latest 54.7%−2.1 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Wrexham's 10 matches and 5 of Burnley's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?