Ajax vs Nijmegen Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Johan Cruijff Arena
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.31
Draw
6.00
Away Win
7.38
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Ajax edge recent form, attack and defence, Nijmegen edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Ajax stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Ajax stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Ajax slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Nijmegen slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Nijmegen have secured two wins and a draw from their last five away outings, while Ajax have managed just one victory alongside three draws in their corresponding home sample. Ajax have found the net in each of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a single clean sheet during that same run. Ajax rate stronger on form and attack, with a slight advantage in defence, while Nijmegen hold a slight advantage in head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 21 February 2026, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 22-day comparison window, Ajax's implied win probability has risen by 10.0 percentage points, while Nijmegen's implied win probability has fallen by 6.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Team Availability
Ajax
No current absences reported
Nijmegen
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Ajax
Ajax's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Ajax win as more likely than it did 22 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Ajax win
Latest market chance 72.7%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
62.7% → 72.7%
+10.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 16.6%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
20.7% → 16.6%
−4.1 pts
Nijmegen win
Latest market chance 10.6%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
16.7% → 10.6%
−6.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Ajax
Draw
Nijmegen
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 22 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AjaxNijmegen
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
11th
7
Games Played
7
2.00
Points/Game
1.14
3.00
Goals/Game
1.71
1.29
Conceded/Game
1.86
24.7
Shots/Game
15.1
8.0
Shots on Target
4.1
Home vs Away Context
Ajax at home (4 matches) vs Nijmegen away (3 matches)
1.25
Points/Game
2.00
2.50
Goals/Game
2.33
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.67
25%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Ajax
Home form
D
D
L
W
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Nijmegen
Away form
D
L
W
W
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Ajax Wins
1
Draws
3
Nijmegen Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.2
Ajax1 – 1Nijmegen
Nijmegen2 – 2Ajax
Ajax0 – 3Nijmegen
Nijmegen1 – 2Ajax
Ajax2 – 2Nijmegen
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Ajaxvs
Nijmegen
Recent Scoring Profile
2.40
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.00
Goals conceded / game
1.70
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
9/10
1/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 71.2%→Latest 71.7%+0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 66.0%→Latest 59.8%−6.2 pts
Strong move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
3 of Ajax's 10 matches and 3 of Nijmegen's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?