AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）
Sun 20 Sep 2026 · 13:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.25
Draw
7.06
Away Win
9.87
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
AZ Alkmaar
Telstar
Mexx Meerdink (Valdemar Byskov Andreasen) ⚽
19'
41'
🟨 Gerald Alders
Wouter Goes 🟨
88'
Match Statistics ?
62%
Ball Possession
38%
17
Total Shots
3
8
Shots on Goal
1
5
Corner Kicks
2
15
Fouls
12
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
4
1
Goalkeeper Saves
7
Starting Lineups
AZ Alkmaar (4-2-3-1)
J. De Busser
E. Dijkstra
W. Goes
L. Schouten
M. Chávez
P. Koopmeiners
D. Kwakman
C. Stengs
V. Byskov
R. Daal
M. Meerdink
Telstar (3-4-2-1)
R. Koeman
S. Valk
A. Soualhia
M. Peersman
Gerald Alders
N. Rossen
T. Owusu
J. Hardeveld
Rui Mendes
P. Brouwer
Jelani Seedorf
Player Ratings ?
AZ Alkmaar
M. MeerdinkF7.9
V. ByskovM7.6
J. HornkampF7.5
Telstar
R. KoemanG8.6
A. SoualhiaD6.9
S. ValkD6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving AZ Alkmaar a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar stronger
HomeAway
Attack
AZ Alkmaar stronger
HomeAway
Defence
AZ Alkmaar stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
AZ Alkmaar stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
AZ Alkmaar arrive at this Eredivisie fixture with a clean sheet in their last five home outings, while Telstar have found the net in two of their last three away matches before suffering defeats. The hosts have scored in five consecutive home games but have only kept a single clean sheet across that same span. Telstar enter the match with one player doubtful, whereas AZ Alkmaar have one confirmed absence and another listed as a doubt. AZ Alkmaar rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. AZ Alkmaar won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 25 January 2026, having won 2 of the last 2 encounters to Telstar's 0, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, AZ Alkmaar's implied win probability has risen by 2.9 percentage points, while Telstar's implied win probability has fallen by 1.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives AZ Alkmaar a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a AZ Alkmaar win as more likely than it did 13 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
AZ Alkmaar win
Latest market chance 76.5%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
73.6% → 76.5%
+2.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 14.4%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
16.1% → 14.4%
−1.7 pts
Telstar win
Latest market chance 9.1%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
10.3% → 9.1%
−1.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
AZ Alkmaar
Draw
Telstar
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AZ AlkmaarTelstar
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
13th
6
Games Played
6
2.67
Points/Game
0.83
2.83
Goals/Game
0.83
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.83
19.4
Shots/Game
7.9
7.6
Shots on Target
2.1
Home vs Away Context
AZ Alkmaar at home (4 matches) vs Telstar away (4 matches)
2.50
Points/Game
1.00
2.25
Goals/Game
0.50
0.75
Conceded/Game
0.75
75%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
AZ Alkmaar
Home form
D
D
W
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Telstar
Away form
D
W
W
L
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
AZ Alkmaar Wins
2
Draws
0
Telstar Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.0
Telstar0 – 1AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar2 – 1Telstar
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
AZ Alkmaarvs
Telstar
Recent Scoring Profile
2.30
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.40
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 72.2%→Latest 72.8%+0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.9%→Latest 57.6%−1.3 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
4 of AZ Alkmaar's 10 matches and 4 of Telstar's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?