AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
AFAS Stadion
Fri 11 Sep 2026 · 19:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.14
Draw
9.16
Away Win
15.86
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
AZ Alkmaar
Willem II
29'
🟨 Tonny Vilhena
Jordy Clasie (Mexx Meerdink) ⚽
32'
81'
⚽ Devin Haen (Uriël van Aalst)
Match Statistics ?
67%
Ball Possession
33%
22
Total Shots
8
5
Shots on Goal
2
11
Corner Kicks
2
7
Fouls
8
0
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
AZ Alkmaar (4-2-3-1)
J. De Busser
E. Dijkstra
W. Goes
L. Schouten
M. Chávez
J. Clasie
P. Koopmeiners
C. Stengs
D. Kwakman
R. Daal
M. Meerdink
Willem II (4-2-3-1)
M. Delanghe
H. ter Avest
F. Stam
M. Dekker
N. Tjoe-A-On
C. Twigt
T. Vilhena
Per van Loon
Uriel van Aalst
J. Slory
D. Haen
Player Ratings ?
AZ Alkmaar
J. ClasieM8.2
M. ChávezD7.5
P. KoopmeinersM7.2
Willem II
D. HaenF7.8
Uriel van AalstM7.3
M. DekkerD6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving AZ Alkmaar a very strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar stronger
HomeAway
Attack
AZ Alkmaar stronger
HomeAway
Defence
AZ Alkmaar stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
AZ Alkmaar stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Willem II have struggled on the road with just two draws from their last five away fixtures, while AZ Alkmaar sit unbeaten at home with three wins in that same span. AZ Alkmaar have found the net in every one of their last five home matches but have managed only two clean sheets in that period. AZ Alkmaar rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. AZ Alkmaar won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 2 February 2025, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Willem II's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 11-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison points very strongly towards AZ Alkmaar.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
AZ Alkmaar unbeaten run
2
Willem II points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a AZ Alkmaar win as less likely than it did 11 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
AZ Alkmaar win
Latest market chance 81.2%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
83.5% → 81.2%
−2.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 11.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
11.5% → 11.7%
+0.2 pts
Willem II win
Latest market chance 7.2%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
4.9% → 7.2%
+2.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
AZ Alkmaar
Draw
Willem II
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 11 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AZ AlkmaarWillem II
Season Profile
This season
1st
League Position
17th
5
Games Played
4
3.00
Points/Game
0.25
3.20
Goals/Game
1.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
3.25
19.4
Shots/Game
11.9
7.6
Shots on Target
2.7
Home vs Away Context
AZ Alkmaar at home (4 matches) vs Willem II away (3 matches)
2.50
Points/Game
0.33
2.25
Goals/Game
1.00
0.75
Conceded/Game
3.33
75%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
AZ Alkmaar
Home form
W
D
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
3.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Willem II
Away form
L
L
D
D
L
Winless in last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
AZ Alkmaar Wins
3
Draws
1
Willem II Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.0
Willem II0 – 2AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar1 – 2Willem II
Willem II2 – 2AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar4 – 1Willem II
Willem II0 – 1AZ Alkmaar
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
AZ Alkmaarvs
Willem II
Recent Scoring Profile
2.50
Goals scored / game
0.90
1.10
Goals conceded / game
2.20
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 72.5%→Latest 73.2%+0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 48.9%→Latest 53.3%+4.4 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
5 of AZ Alkmaar's 10 matches and 6 of Willem II's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?