Excelsior vs Utrecht Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadion Woudestein
Sun 13 Sep 2026 · 11:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.25
Draw
3.79
Away Win
3.08
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Excelsior
Utrecht
36'
⚽ Artem Stepanov
Valentin Sulzbacher 🟨
71'
Aymen sliti (Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson) ⚽
77'
Mario Domínguez Franco 🟨
85'
90+2'
⚽ Dani De Wit
Match Statistics ?
56%
Ball Possession
44%
10
Total Shots
12
4
Shots on Goal
6
5
Corner Kicks
2
9
Fouls
8
2
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
2
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Excelsior (4-1-4-1)
S. van Gassel
Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira
C. Widell
J. Plug
K. Bos
R. Meissen
A. Sliti
I. Yegoian
L. Hartjes
Á. Þorsteinsson
D. Garden
Utrecht (3-4-3)
V. Barkas
S. Horemans
M. Didden
N. Panagiotou
N. Vesterlund
D. de Wit
D. van den Berg
A. Zagré
Ángel Alarcón
Artem Stepanov
A. Blake
Player Ratings ?
Excelsior
A. SlitiM7.6
J. PlugD7.2
Á. ÞorsteinssonM6.9
Utrecht
D. de WitM8.0
Artem StepanovF7.9
M. DiddenD6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Excelsior
Excelsior rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; head-to-head is closely matched, giving Excelsior a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Excelsior stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Excelsior slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Excelsior stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Utrecht have recorded just one win from their last five away fixtures across seasons, while Excelsior have secured two victories in their last five home outings over the same period. Excelsior have found the net in four of their last five home matches across seasons, though they have managed only one clean sheet in that same sample. Excelsior face a single confirmed absence for their home side, whereas Utrecht must navigate seven confirmed absences ahead of this Eredivisie fixture. Excelsior rate stronger on form and defence, with a slight advantage in attack, while head-to-head is closely matched. Excelsior won the most recent meeting 5-0 on 26 April 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Utrecht's 2, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.4 goals per meeting. Over the 9-day comparison window, Excelsior's implied win probability has risen by 7.7 percentage points, while Utrecht's implied win probability has fallen by 6.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Excelsior a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Excelsior
Excelsior's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Excelsior win as more likely than it did 9 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Excelsior win
Latest market chance 43.1%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
35.4% → 43.1%
+7.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.3%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
26.1% → 25.3%
−0.8 pts
Utrecht win
Latest market chance 31.6%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
38.5% → 31.6%
−6.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Excelsior
Draw
Utrecht
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 9 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ExcelsiorUtrecht
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
16th
5
Games Played
6
2.00
Points/Game
0.50
2.40
Goals/Game
2.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
3.50
11.3
Shots/Game
10.7
4.7
Shots on Target
4.0
Home vs Away Context
Excelsior at home (3 matches) vs Utrecht away (4 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
1.00
1.33
Goals/Game
1.50
1.67
Conceded/Game
2.75
33%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Excelsior
Home form
L
W
D
L
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Utrecht
Away form
L
W
D
L
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Excelsior Wins
1
Draws
2
Utrecht Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.4
Excelsior5 – 0Utrecht
Utrecht4 – 1Excelsior
Excelsior1 – 1Utrecht
Utrecht2 – 2Excelsior
Utrecht1 – 0Excelsior
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Excelsiorvs
Utrecht
Recent Scoring Profile
2.60
Goals scored / game
2.00
1.20
Goals conceded / game
2.50
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
9/10
0/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.0%→Latest 60.4%+4.4 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.4%→Latest 63.2%+3.8 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
5 of Excelsior's 10 matches and 4 of Utrecht's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?