Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
De Kuip
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 17:45 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.81
Draw
3.77
Away Win
4.25
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Feyenoord edge recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Feyenoord slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Feyenoord stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Feyenoord slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Feyenoord stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
AZ Alkmaar arrive with an impressive away record of three wins and two draws from their last five outings, while Feyenoord have remained unbeaten at home with two victories and three draws in the same span. Feyenoord have found the net in all five of their recent home matches but have only kept one clean sheet during that span. Feyenoord rate stronger on attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form and defence. The most recent meeting, on 10 May 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 22-day comparison window, Feyenoord's implied win probability has risen by 0.5 percentage points, while AZ Alkmaar's implied win probability has fallen by 1.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
AZ Alkmaar unbeaten run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
Team Availability
Feyenoord
No current absences reported
AZ Alkmaar
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a AZ Alkmaar win as less likely than it did 22 days ago. Feyenoord remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Feyenoord win
Latest market chance 51.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
51.4% → 51.9%
+0.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.8%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
22.7% → 23.8%
+1.1 pts
AZ Alkmaar win
Latest market chance 24.3%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
25.9% → 24.3%
−1.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Feyenoord
Draw
AZ Alkmaar
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 22 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
FeyenoordAZ Alkmaar
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
1st
7
Games Played
7
2.43
Points/Game
2.71
3.57
Goals/Game
2.57
1.00
Conceded/Game
0.86
22.3
Shots/Game
19.4
8.6
Shots on Target
7.6
Home vs Away Context
Feyenoord at home (3 matches) vs AZ Alkmaar away (3 matches)
1.67
Points/Game
3.00
3.00
Goals/Game
3.00
1.33
Conceded/Game
1.00
33%
Win Rate
100%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Feyenoord
Home form
W
D
D
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
AZ Alkmaar
Away form
D
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight away
2 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Feyenoord Wins
3
Draws
2
AZ Alkmaar Wins
0
Avg Goals
3.0
Feyenoord1 – 1AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar3 – 3Feyenoord
AZ Alkmaar0 – 1Feyenoord
Feyenoord3 – 2AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar0 – 1Feyenoord
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Feyenoordvs
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Scoring Profile
3.00
Goals scored / game
2.40
0.90
Goals conceded / game
1.20
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
0/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 6 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 68.0%→Latest 66.0%−2.0 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 66.9%→Latest 65.4%−1.5 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Feyenoord's 10 matches and 3 of AZ Alkmaar's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?