Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar Head to Head, Prediction
Abe Lenstra Stadion
Sun 06 Sep 2026 · 13:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.78
Draw
4.18
Away Win
1.82
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 3
Match Events ?
Heerenveen
AZ Alkmaar
7'
⚽ R. Daal (W. Goes)
N. Courtens (D. Vente) ⚽
21'
Nolhan Courtens 🟨
28'
R. Meerveld (D. Proper) ⚽
30'
54'
🟨 Ro-Zangelo Daal
69'
⚽ M. Meerdink (V. Byskov)
83'
⚽ A. Oufkir (M. Meerdink)
90+1'
🟨 Ayoub Oufkir
Match Statistics ?
45%
Ball Possession
55%
14
Total Shots
15
5
Shots on Goal
8
4
Corner Kicks
3
9
Fouls
12
1
Yellow Cards
2
1
Offsides
4
5
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Heerenveen (4-2-3-1)
B. Klaverboer
O. Braude
S. Kersten
M. Willemsen
V. Zagaritis
N. Courtens
D. Proper
J. Trenskow
R. Meerveld
M. Rivera
D. Vente
AZ Alkmaar (4-2-3-1)
J. De Busser
E. Dijkstra
W. Goes
L. Schouten
M. Chavez Garcia
J. Clasie
P. Koopmeiners
Weslley Patati
D. Kwakman
R. Daal
M. Meerdink
Player Ratings ?
Heerenveen
Bernt KlaverboerG8.3
Nolhan CourtensM7.9
Ringo MeerveldM7.9
AZ Alkmaar
Jari De BusserG8.2
Peer KoopmeinersM8.0
Ayoub OufkirF7.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; head-to-head is closely matched, giving AZ Alkmaar a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar stronger
HomeAway
Attack
AZ Alkmaar stronger
HomeAway
Defence
AZ Alkmaar stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 6 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Heerenveen win
Latest market chance 24.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.2% → 24.6%
+0.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.2% → 23.1%
−0.1 pts
AZ Alkmaar win
Latest market chance 52.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
52.6% → 52.4%
−0.2 pts
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
HeerenveenAZ Alkmaar
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
2nd
4
Games Played
4
1.25
Points/Game
3.00
1.25
Goals/Game
3.25
1.50
Conceded/Game
0.75
16.0
Shots/Game
19.4
6.0
Shots on Target
7.6
Home vs Away Context
Heerenveen at home (4 matches) vs AZ Alkmaar away (3 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
3.00
0.75
Goals/Game
3.00
1.25
Conceded/Game
1.00
25%
Win Rate
100%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Heerenveen
Home form
W
W
D
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
AZ Alkmaar
Away form
L
D
D
W
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Heerenveen Wins
2
Draws
1
AZ Alkmaar Wins
2
Avg Goals
5.0
AZ Alkmaar3 – 0Heerenveen
Heerenveen3 – 1AZ Alkmaar
Heerenveen3 – 1AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar9 – 1Heerenveen
Heerenveen2 – 2AZ Alkmaar
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Heerenveenvs
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
2.40
1.50
Goals conceded / game
0.90
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
4/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 64.7%→Latest 65.7%+1.0 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 63.5%→Latest 64.5%+1.0 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
6 of Heerenveen's 10 matches and 6 of AZ Alkmaar's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?