Nijmegen vs Excelsior Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadion de Goffert
Tue 08 Sep 2026 · 17:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.99
Draw
3.79
Away Win
3.71
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Nijmegen
Excelsior
Jamiro Monteiro 🟨
4'
Adam Tahaui (Willum Thor Willumsson) ⚽
10'
43'
⚽ David Garden (Irakli Yegoian)
52'
🟨 Lennard Hartjes
70'
🟨 Rick Meissen
73'
⚽ Valentin Sulzbacher (Aymen sliti)
Noe Lebreton (Perr Schuurs) ⚽
90+2'
90+5'
🟨 Valentin Sulzbacher
Match Statistics ?
69%
Ball Possession
31%
11
Total Shots
14
3
Shots on Goal
5
2
Corner Kicks
4
5
Fouls
16
1
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
0
3
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Nijmegen (3-4-2-1)
N. Polster
Gabriel Brás
B. Nuytinck
T. Storm
Adam Tahaui
Jamiro Monteiro
D. Geiger
A. Thomas
W. Willumsson
I. Hansen-Aarøen
D. Tadić
Excelsior (3-4-3)
S. van Gassel
R. Meissen
C. Widell
J. Plug
Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira
I. Yegoian
L. Hartjes
S. Janssen
I. Silva Timas
D. Garden
Á. Þorsteinsson
Player Ratings ?
Nijmegen
N. LebretonM7.8
Adam TahauiM7.6
Kevin KersF6.9
Excelsior
D. GardenF7.8
V. SulzbacherM6.9
A. SlitiF6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Nijmegen edge head-to-head, Excelsior edge recent form and attack, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Excelsior stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Excelsior slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Nijmegen stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Excelsior arrive with an impressive away record of four wins and a draw from their last five outings, whereas Nijmegen have only managed a single victory in the same span at home. The hosts have found the net in all of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that identical sequence. Nijmegen face potential disruption with three confirmed out and one doubtful player, while Excelsior have no confirmed absences though one squad member remains a doubt. Excelsior rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in attack, while Nijmegen rate stronger on head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Nijmegen won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 4 April 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Excelsior's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.0 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Nijmegen's implied win probability has fallen by 6.4 percentage points, while Excelsior's implied win probability has risen by 4.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Nijmegen
Nijmegen's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Nijmegen win as less likely than it did 9 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Nijmegen win
Latest market chance 57.5%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
64.1% → 57.5%
−6.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.2%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
19.5% → 22.2%
+2.7 pts
Excelsior win
Latest market chance 20.3%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
16.3% → 20.3%
+4.0 pts
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 9 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
NijmegenExcelsior
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
5th
4
Games Played
4
1.50
Points/Game
2.25
2.25
Goals/Game
2.50
1.75
Conceded/Game
0.75
15.1
Shots/Game
11.3
4.1
Shots on Target
4.7
Home vs Away Context
Nijmegen at home (4 matches) vs Excelsior away (4 matches)
0.50
Points/Game
2.00
1.25
Goals/Game
2.75
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
0%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Nijmegen
Home form
D
D
W
L
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Excelsior
Away form
D
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight away
3 of these matches from last season.
3.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Nijmegen Wins
4
Draws
0
Excelsior Wins
1
Avg Goals
4.0
Excelsior0 – 2Nijmegen
Nijmegen5 – 0Excelsior
Excelsior0 – 3Nijmegen
Nijmegen3 – 4Excelsior
Excelsior0 – 3Nijmegen
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Nijmegenvs
Excelsior
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
2.40
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.20
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
9/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
0/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 12 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 64.7%→Latest 64.6%−0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.4%→Latest 61.7%+2.3 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
6 of Nijmegen's 10 matches and 6 of Excelsior's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?