PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Philips Stadion
Sun 13 Sep 2026 · 19:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.17
Draw
9.01
Away Win
12.60
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 1
Match Events ?
PSV Eindhoven
Sparta Rotterdam
15'
⚽ Milan Zonneveld (Bas Kuipers)
Sven Mijnans (Esmir Bajraktarević) ⚽
23'
30'
🟨 Bruno Martins Indi
Kodai Sano (Esmir Bajraktarević) ⚽
39'
Sven Mijnans ⚽
74'
Armando Obispo 🟨
75'
Sven Mijnans (Lutsharel Geertruida) ⚽
88'
Match Statistics ?
76%
Ball Possession
24%
28
Total Shots
10
10
Shots on Goal
6
9
Corner Kicks
5
6
Fouls
3
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
5
Offsides
0
4
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
PSV Eindhoven (4-3-3)
M. Kovář
S. Dest
L. Geertruida
A. Obispo
Mauro Júnior
G. Til
P. Wanner
K. Sano
E. Bajraktarevic
S. Mijnans
A. Bouhamdi
Sparta Rotterdam (3-4-2-1)
M. Brouwer
M. Young
N. Verschuren
B. Martins Indi
L. Martes
J. Baas
Cedric Hatenboer
B. Kuipers
C. Terho
M. van Bergen
M. Zonneveld
Player Ratings ?
PSV Eindhoven
S. MijnansF9.4
E. BajraktarevicF8.3
K. SanoM8.2
Sparta Rotterdam
M. ZonneveldF8.0
M. BrouwerG6.7
Cedric HatenboerM6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving PSV Eindhoven a very strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
PSV Eindhoven stronger
HomeAway
Attack
PSV Eindhoven stronger
HomeAway
Defence
PSV Eindhoven stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
PSV Eindhoven stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
PSV Eindhoven arrive at home unbeaten in their last five outings with four victories and a single draw, while Sparta Rotterdam have found the net just once more often than not away from home with one win and one draw to show for their last five matches. PSV Eindhoven have scored in all five of their recent home fixtures but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same run, leaving them vulnerable defensively despite their consistent offensive output at this venue. Six players are confirmed out for PSV Eindhoven ahead of the match, whereas Sparta Rotterdam face a single doubt in their squad with no confirmed absences to report before kickoff. PSV Eindhoven rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. PSV Eindhoven won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 11 April 2026, having won 5 of the last 5 encounters to Sparta Rotterdam's 0, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.4 goals per meeting. Over the 9-day comparison window, PSV Eindhoven's implied win probability has risen by 4.2 percentage points, while Sparta Rotterdam's implied win probability has fallen by 1.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison points very strongly towards PSV Eindhoven.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a PSV Eindhoven win as more likely than it did 9 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
PSV Eindhoven win
Latest market chance 81.1%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
76.9% → 81.1%
+4.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 11.7%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
14.1% → 11.7%
−2.4 pts
Sparta Rotterdam win
Latest market chance 7.2%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
9.0% → 7.2%
−1.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
PSV Eindhoven
Draw
Sparta Rotterdam
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 9 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
PSV EindhovenSparta Rotterdam
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
11th
5
Games Played
5
2.60
Points/Game
1.00
3.60
Goals/Game
1.80
1.20
Conceded/Game
1.80
21.0
Shots/Game
13.1
8.4
Shots on Target
4.3
Home vs Away Context
PSV Eindhoven at home (3 matches) vs Sparta Rotterdam away (3 matches)
2.33
Points/Game
1.00
3.67
Goals/Game
1.67
1.33
Conceded/Game
2.33
67%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
PSV Eindhoven
Home form
W
W
W
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
4.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Sparta Rotterdam
Away form
D
L
L
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
PSV Eindhoven Wins
5
Draws
0
Sparta Rotterdam Wins
0
Avg Goals
4.4
Sparta Rotterdam0 – 2PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven6 – 1Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam1 – 3PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven2 – 1Sparta Rotterdam
PSV Eindhoven4 – 2Sparta Rotterdam
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
PSV Eindhovenvs
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Scoring Profile
3.70
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.10
Goals conceded / game
2.40
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
9/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
0/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 76.2%→Latest 79.6%+3.4 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.7%→Latest 60.7%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
5 of PSV Eindhoven's 10 matches and 5 of Sparta Rotterdam's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?