Burgos vs Ceuta Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Fri 11 Sep 2026 · 19:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.69
Draw
3.87
Away Win
5.18
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Burgos
Ceuta
14'
⚽ Carlos Hernández (Kuki Zalazar)
Alberto Dadie (Jon Karrikaburu) ⚽
20'
27'
🟨 Chidiebere Gabriel Okoro
Jon Karrikaburu (David Gonzalez) ⚽
48'
José Gragera 🟨
62'
66'
🟨 Kuki Zalazar
Carlos Redruello Nimo ⚽ (OG)
81'
David Gonzalez 🟨
86'
Alberto Dadie 🟨
90'
Match Statistics ?
47%
Ball Possession
53%
7
Total Shots
12
2
Shots on Goal
3
1
Corner Kicks
7
21
Fouls
13
3
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
4
2
Goalkeeper Saves
0
Starting Lineups
Burgos (4-4-2)
Ander Cantero
Alberto Dadie
Marcelo Expósito
Grego
Ignasi Vilarrasa
David González
José Gragera
Unai Vencedor
Javi Llabrés
Jon Karrikaburu
Curro Sánchez
Ceuta (4-3-3)
Pedro López
Redru
Carlos Hernández
Y. Bodiger
José Matos
Kuki
Chidiebere Gabriel Okoro
Mawuli Mensah
E. Sevikyan
O. Sadik
Alejandro Camacho Ramírez
Player Ratings ?
Burgos
Jon KarrikaburuF8.1
Marcelo ExpósitoD7.0
David GonzálezM6.9
Ceuta
KukiM7.7
Carlos HernándezD7.3
Alejandro Camacho RamírezF6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Burgos
Burgos rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; Ceuta edge head-to-head, giving Burgos a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Burgos stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Burgos stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Burgos stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Ceuta stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Burgos have remained unbeaten in their last five home outings with two wins and three draws, while Ceuta have recorded two victories from five away fixtures that span multiple seasons. At home, Burgos have scored in four of their last five matches but have also kept two clean sheets during the same period. Burgos rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Ceuta rate stronger on head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 1 April 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 2 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 1.5 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 4-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison gives Burgos a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Ceuta losing run
50%
Ceuta yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 4 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Burgos win
Latest market chance 55.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
56.4% → 55.7%
−0.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.5% → 25.2%
+0.7 pts
Ceuta win
Latest market chance 19.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
19.1% → 19.0%
−0.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Burgos
Draw
Ceuta
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BurgosCeuta
Season Profile
This season
13th
League Position
22nd
4
Games Played
4
1.25
Points/Game
0.00
1.25
Goals/Game
0.25
1.25
Conceded/Game
3.00
9.8
Shots/Game
13.6
2.9
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away Context
Burgos at home (4 matches) vs Ceuta away (4 matches)
2.50
Points/Game
0.25
2.25
Goals/Game
0.75
1.25
Conceded/Game
3.00
75%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Burgos
Home form
D
D
W
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Ceuta
Away form
D
W
W
L
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Burgos Wins
0
Draws
1
Ceuta Wins
1
Avg Goals
1.5
Burgos1 – 1Ceuta
Ceuta1 – 0Burgos
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Burgosvs
Ceuta
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
0.80
0.60
Goals conceded / game
1.80
2/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
4/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.3%→Latest 51.2%−0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.0%→Latest 51.4%−0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
6 of Burgos's 10 matches and 6 of Ceuta's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?