Burgos vs Eldense Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Municipal El Plantio
Sun 27 Sep 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.93
Draw
3.39
Away Win
4.36
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Burgos
Eldense
32'
🟨 Alex Serradell Garralaga
David Gonzalez (Álex Forés) ⚽
45'
Unai Vencedor 🟨
55'
Santiago Lencina 🟨
86'
87'
🟨 Juan Larios López
Oier Luengo Redondo 🟨
90+1'
Match Statistics ?
48%
Ball Possession
52%
6
Total Shots
11
2
Shots on Goal
4
2
Corner Kicks
5
15
Fouls
14
3
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Burgos (4-4-2)
Ander Cantero
Alberto Dadie
Oier Luengo
Grego
Ignasi Vilarrasa
David González
Unai Vencedor
José Gragera
Javi Llabrés
Jon Karrikaburu
Álex Forés
Eldense (4-2-3-1)
Ramón Vila
Jesús Clemente
Alex Serradell
F. Smand
Juan Larios
J. Smith
Carlos Guirao
Fidel
Roberto López
Aingeru Olabarrieta
Jorge Rastrojo
Player Ratings ?
Burgos
Ander CanteroG8.0
David GonzálezM7.8
Álex ForésF7.4
Eldense
J. SmithM7.0
Roberto LópezM6.9
F. SmandD6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Burgos edge recent form, attack and defence, Eldense edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Burgos stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Burgos slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Burgos stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Eldense slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Burgos have secured three wins and two draws from their last five home outings, while Eldense have recorded just one victory and a single draw in their corresponding away sample. The hosts have scored in four of their last five matches at home but have also kept two clean sheets during that same period. Burgos rate stronger on form and defence, with a slight advantage in attack, while Eldense hold a slight advantage in head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 29 March 2025, ended level, with 1 of the last 4 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 1.5 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Burgos's implied win probability has fallen by 1.2 percentage points, while Eldense's implied win probability has risen by 0.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Burgos
Burgos's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Burgos win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Burgos win
Latest market chance 49.3%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
50.5% → 49.3%
−1.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.2%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
27.2% → 28.2%
+1.0 pts
Eldense win
Latest market chance 22.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
22.3% → 22.5%
+0.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Burgos
Draw
Eldense
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BurgosEldense
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
18th
6
Games Played
6
1.83
Points/Game
0.83
1.67
Goals/Game
0.67
1.17
Conceded/Game
1.33
9.8
Shots/Game
13.1
2.9
Shots on Target
4.6
Home vs Away Context
Burgos at home (4 matches) vs Eldense away (4 matches)
2.50
Points/Game
0.75
2.25
Goals/Game
0.25
1.25
Conceded/Game
1.25
75%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Burgos
Home form
D
W
W
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Eldense
Away form
D
L
L
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Burgos Wins
1
Draws
1
Eldense Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.5
Eldense0 – 0Burgos
Burgos1 – 0Eldense
Burgos1 – 2Eldense
Eldense2 – 0Burgos
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Burgosvs
Eldense
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.10
0.70
Goals conceded / game
1.50
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
3/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 45.9%→Latest 44.9%−1.0 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 49.9%→Latest 50.0%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
4 of Burgos's 10 matches and 4 of Eldense's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?