Castellon vs Ceuta Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio Municipal Castalia
Sun 04 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.26
Draw
6.68
Away Win
10.55
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Castellon
Ceuta
Israel Suero (Alvaro Garcia) ⚽
2'
6'
🟨 Gabriel Okoro
49'
🟨 Carlos Hernández
53'
⚽ Jordi Escobar (Joaquín González)
Alberto Jiménez 🟨
55'
84'
🟨 Jose Matos
Match Statistics ?
72%
Ball Possession
28%
10
Total Shots
13
2
Shots on Goal
4
3
Corner Kicks
7
14
Fouls
16
1
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
5
Offsides
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Castellon (3-4-2-1)
Romain Matthys
Federico Ceccherini
Alberto Jiménez
Agustín Sienra
Pablo Santiago
Diego Barri
Álvaro Martín
Íñigo Cordoba
Israel Suero
Adam Jakobsen
Alvaro Garcia
Ceuta (3-4-2-1)
Guillermo Vallejo
Albert Caparrós
Carlos Hernández
Daniel Mas Soria
Alejandro Camacho
Joaquín González
Gabriel Okoro
Jose Matos
Kuki Zalazar
Kialy Abdoul Kone
Jordi Escobar
Player Ratings ?
Castellon
Israel SueroF8.2
A. JakobsenF7.0
Varo GarcíaF6.9
Ceuta
Jordi EscobarF8.2
JoaquínM7.2
D. MasD6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Castellon
Castellon rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; head-to-head is closely matched, giving Castellon a strong edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Castellon stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Castellon stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Castellon stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Castellon have enjoyed an impressive unbeaten run in their last five home outings with three wins and two draws, while Ceuta have recorded just two victories from five away fixtures during that same period. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five matches at home but have also kept three clean sheets in that identical sample, suggesting a mixed defensive and offensive output in recent times. Castellon rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while head-to-head is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 9 May 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 2 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 4.0 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Castellon's implied win probability has risen by 1.3 percentage points, while Ceuta's implied win probability has fallen by 0.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Castellon a strong edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Ceuta losing run
46%
Castellon yellow cards after 75'
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Castellon
Castellon's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Castellon win as more likely than it did 5 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Castellon win
Latest market chance 76.3%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
75.0% → 76.3%
+1.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 14.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
15.4% → 14.9%
−0.5 pts
Ceuta win
Latest market chance 8.8%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
9.6% → 8.8%
−0.8 pts
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CastellonCeuta
Season Profile
This season
1st
League Position
20th
8
Games Played
8
2.75
Points/Game
0.88
2.00
Goals/Game
1.12
0.25
Conceded/Game
2.25
14.9
Shots/Game
13.6
5.1
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away Context
Castellon at home (4 matches) vs Ceuta away (4 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
0.25
2.00
Goals/Game
0.75
0.25
Conceded/Game
3.00
50%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Castellon
Home form
W
D
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Ceuta
Away form
W
W
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Castellon Wins
0
Draws
2
Ceuta Wins
0
Avg Goals
4.0
Ceuta1 – 1Castellon
Castellon3 – 3Ceuta
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Castellonvs
Ceuta
Recent Scoring Profile
1.90
Goals scored / game
1.20
0.60
Goals conceded / game
1.80
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
1/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 69.5%→Latest 69.6%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.5%→Latest 53.5%−2.0 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
2 of Castellon's 10 matches and 2 of Ceuta's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?