Castellon vs Tenerife Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio Municipal Castalia
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.56
Draw
4.28
Away Win
5.86
Match Report
Full Time
5 – 0
Match Events ?
Castellon
Tenerife
Diego Barri (Israel Suero Fernández) ⚽
9'
Matías Orozco (Adam Jakobsen) ⚽
24'
Ousmane Camara (Íñigo Córdoba) ⚽
29'
60'
🟨 Mauro Pitton
Pablo Santiago (Juanjo Nieto) ⚽
62'
65'
🟨 Víctor Moreno Alcalá
Ousmane Camara (Alberto Jiménez) ⚽
77'
Match Statistics ?
64%
Ball Possession
36%
9
Total Shots
12
5
Shots on Goal
4
0
Corner Kicks
5
12
Fouls
7
0
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
4
4
Goalkeeper Saves
0
Starting Lineups
Castellon (4-4-2)
R. Matthys
J. Mellot
Alberto Jiménez
A. Sienra
Juanjo Nieto
A. Jakobsen
M. Orozco
Barri
Iñigo Córdoba
Ousmane Camara
Israel Suero
Tenerife (4-4-2)
Dani Martín
Jorge Moreno
A. Landázuri
José León
David Rodríguez
Iván Chapela
Juanjo
Fabricio
Marc Mateu
VÃctor Moreno
C. Gomis
Player Ratings ?
Castellon
Ousmane CamaraF8.9
M. OrozcoM8.2
BarriM8.2
Tenerife
Gerard ValentínF6.6
A. KrdžalićM6.6
Iván ChapelaM6.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Castellon edge recent form, attack and defence, Tenerife edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Castellon stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Castellon stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Castellon slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Tenerife stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Castellon have enjoyed a solid run at home with two wins and three draws from their last five outings, while Tenerife sit in mixed company away from home with just one win, two draws, and two defeats in that same span. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five matches at this venue but have managed to keep a clean sheet only twice in that period. Castellon rate stronger on form and attack, with a slight advantage in defence, while Tenerife rate stronger on head-to-head. Tenerife won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 11 January 2025, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Castellon's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Castellon's implied win probability has fallen by 1.2 percentage points, while Tenerife's implied win probability has fallen by 0.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
50%
Castellon yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Castellon
Castellon's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Castellon win as less likely than it did 4 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Castellon win
Latest market chance 60.2%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
61.4% → 60.2%
−1.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.2%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
22.1% → 23.2%
+1.1 pts
Tenerife win
Latest market chance 16.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
16.5% → 16.5%
±0.0 pts
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CastellonTenerife
Season Profile
This season
1st
League Position
4th
5
Games Played
5
2.60
Points/Game
2.00
1.40
Goals/Game
1.40
0.40
Conceded/Game
0.60
14.9
Shots/Game
10.1
5.1
Shots on Target
3.1
Home vs Away Context
Castellon at home (4 matches) vs Tenerife away (3 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.33
2.00
Goals/Game
1.33
0.25
Conceded/Game
2.33
50%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Castellon
Home form
D
W
D
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Tenerife
Away form
D
L
L
W
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Castellon Wins
2
Draws
1
Tenerife Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.2
Tenerife2 – 0Castellon
Castellon2 – 1Tenerife
Tenerife1 – 1Castellon
Castellon0 – 1Tenerife
Tenerife1 – 2Castellon
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Castellonvs
Tenerife
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
0.80
0.80
Goals conceded / game
0.80
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
1/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
1/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 59.5%→Latest 53.0%−6.5 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.6%→Latest 51.5%−5.1 pts
Strong move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Castellon's 10 matches and 5 of Tenerife's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?