Eldense vs Eibar Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Nuevo Pepico Amat
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.14
Draw
3.10
Away Win
2.51
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Eldense
Eibar
29'
⚽ Jon Magunazelaia (Aleix Garrido)
Manuel Nieto 🟨
30'
52'
🟨 Jon Bautista
54'
🟨 Malcom Ares
63'
⚽ Iván Gil (Ander Madariaga Susaeta)
Justin Smith ⚽
76'
Justin Smith 🟨
77'
90'
🟨 jon guruzeta
90+3'
🟨 Lucas Nuñez Ramirez
Match Statistics ?
64%
Ball Possession
36%
24
Total Shots
8
6
Shots on Goal
4
9
Corner Kicks
2
8
Fouls
14
2
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Eldense (4-2-3-1)
Ramón Vila
A. Ibarrondo
Alex Serradell
F. Smand
D. Ruiz
J. Smith
Carlos Guirao
Fidel
Roberto López
Aingeru Olabarrieta
Manu Nieto
Eibar (4-2-3-1)
Jon Mikel
Álvaro Rodríguez
Unai Elgezabal
Anaitz Arbilla
Juan Bernat
Aleix Garrido
Ander Madariaga
Jon Magunazelaia
Iván Gil
Malcom Adu
Jon Bautista
Player Ratings ?
Eldense
J. SmithM8.2
D. RuizD6.8
A. IbarrondoD6.7
Eibar
Iván GilM8.2
Jon MagunazelaiaM7.8
Aleix GarridoM7.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Eibar
Eibar rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Eibar a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Eibar stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Eibar stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Eibar stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Eibar stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Eibar arrive with three wins from their last five away outings, while Eldense have remained unbeaten at home during that same five-match span. At home, Eldense have found the net in four of their last five matches yet have kept a clean sheet just twice in that identical period. Eibar rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Eibar won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 13 January 2025, having won 3 of the last 4 encounters to Eldense's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.5 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Eldense's implied win probability has fallen by 0.4 percentage points, while Eibar's implied win probability has fallen by 0.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Eibar a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards the draw
the draw's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a draw as more likely than it did 4 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Eibar remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Eldense win
Latest market chance 31.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
32.1% → 31.7%
−0.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 30.1%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
28.8% → 30.1%
+1.3 pts
Eibar win
Latest market chance 38.1%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
39.0% → 38.1%
−0.9 pts
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
EldenseEibar
Season Profile
This season
17th
League Position
2nd
5
Games Played
5
1.00
Points/Game
2.40
0.60
Goals/Game
2.00
1.20
Conceded/Game
0.60
13.1
Shots/Game
11.1
4.6
Shots on Target
5.0
Home vs Away Context
Eldense at home (5 matches) vs Eibar away (5 matches)
1.60
Points/Game
3.00
2.20
Goals/Game
2.60
1.20
Conceded/Game
0.60
40%
Win Rate
100%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Eldense
Home form
D
W
D
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Eibar
Away form
W
L
L
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Eldense Wins
1
Draws
0
Eibar Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.5
Eldense1 – 3Eibar
Eibar1 – 0Eldense
Eibar5 – 1Eldense
Eldense2 – 1Eibar
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Eldensevs
Eibar
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.10
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
4/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 44.2%→Latest 44.9%+0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.3%→Latest 51.4%+1.1 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
5 of Eldense's 10 matches and 5 of Eibar's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?