Eldense vs Oviedo Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Nuevo Pepico Amat
Fri 02 Oct 2026 · 19:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.72
Draw
3.05
Away Win
2.91
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 1
Match Events ?
Eldense
Oviedo
1'
⚽ Alberto Reina (David Jimenez)
22'
🟨 Samuel Rodríguez de la Riva
40'
🟨 David Jimenez
Alex Serradell Garralaga 🟨
43'
Juan Larios López 🟨
50'
Roberto López ⚽ (P)
56'
67'
🟨 Pablo Saenz
Fidel ⚽ (P)
68'
71'
🟨 Carlos Dominguez
Aingeru Olabarrieta (Marcos Bustillo Aquesolo) ⚽
90'
Jorge Rastrojo ⚽
90+5'
Match Statistics ?
54%
Ball Possession
46%
17
Total Shots
15
9
Shots on Goal
4
6
Corner Kicks
8
18
Fouls
17
2
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Eldense (4-2-3-1)
Ramón Vila
A. Ibarrondo
Alex Serradell
F. Smand
Iker Recio
Carlos Guirao
Guillermo Macho
Fidel
Javi Martínez
Waldo Rubio
Manu Nieto
Oviedo (4-1-2-1-2)
Miguel Narváez
David Jiménez
Dani Calvo
Carlos Domínguez
S. Rodriguez
Y. Didi
Dani Villahermosa
Mikel Goti
Alberto Reina
Jacobo González
Pablo Sáenz
Player Ratings ?
Eldense
Roberto LópezM7.8
Aingeru OlabarrietaF7.7
Jorge RastrojoF7.6
Oviedo
Alberto ReinaM7.2
Jacobo GonzálezF6.6
Miguel NarváezG6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Oviedo
Oviedo rate stronger in recent form, defence and head-to-head; attack is closely matched, giving Oviedo a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Oviedo stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Oviedo stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Oviedo stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Oviedo have shown resilience on their travels with three wins and a draw from their last five away outings, while Eldense remain steady at home with just one defeat in that same span. At home, Eldense have found the net in four of their last five matches but have managed to keep a clean sheet only twice during that period. Oviedo rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 10 February 2025, ended level, with 3 of the last 4 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Eldense's implied win probability has fallen by 0.4 percentage points, while Oviedo's implied win probability has fallen by 1.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Oviedo a slight edge.
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards the draw
the draw's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a draw as more likely than it did 4 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Eldense remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Eldense win
Latest market chance 34.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
35.1% → 34.7%
−0.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 31.1%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
29.7% → 31.1%
+1.4 pts
Oviedo win
Latest market chance 34.2%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
35.2% → 34.2%
−1.0 pts
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Eldense
Oviedo
Season Profile
This season
21st
League Position
9th
7
Games Played
7
0.71
Points/Game
1.57
0.57
Goals/Game
1.00
1.29
Conceded/Game
0.57
13.1
Shots/Game
14.4
4.6
Shots on Target
4.1
Home vs Away Context
Eldense at home (5 matches) vs Oviedo away (5 matches)
1.60
Points/Game
1.20
2.20
Goals/Game
1.40
1.20
Conceded/Game
2.20
40%
Win Rate
40%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Eldense
Home form
W
D
D
D
L
1W 3D 1L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Oviedo
Away form
D
W
W
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Eldense Wins
0
Draws
3
Oviedo Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.0
2025-02-102024-2025
Oviedo0 – 0Eldense
2024-09-212024-2025
Eldense1 – 1Oviedo
2024-02-042023-2024
Oviedo1 – 1Eldense
2023-10-012023-2024
Eldense1 – 3Oviedo
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Eldense
vs
Oviedo
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.60
Goals conceded / game
0.50
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
2/10
4/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
65.1%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
39.7%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
19.8%
BTTSBoth teams score
46.4%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 44.9%→Latest 39.8%−5.1 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Sep 28Sep 29Sep 30Oct 1Oct 2
5 common bookmakers · first comparable 4 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 51.4%→Latest 47.7%−3.7 pts
Strong move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Sep 28Sep 29Sep 30Oct 1Oct 2
5 common bookmakers · first comparable 4 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Eldense's 10 matches and 3 of Oviedo's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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