Mallorca vs Almeria Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix
Sun 27 Sep 2026 · 15:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.11
Draw
3.23
Away Win
3.91
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Mallorca
Almeria
Miguel Calatayud García 🟨
26'
35'
⚽ Miguel De La Fuente
37'
🟨 Javier Muñoz Jiménez
Josep Cerda 🟨
64'
Aboubaka Soumahoro 🟨
71'
83'
🟨 Andrés Fernández
Antonio José Raíllo Arenas 🟨
86'
Pablo Torre 🟨
90+4'
90+6'
🟨 Federico Bonini
John Donald 🟨
90+8'
Match Statistics ?
54%
Ball Possession
46%
17
Total Shots
11
5
Shots on Goal
3
6
Corner Kicks
2
20
Fouls
17
6
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Mallorca (4-1-4-1)
Arnau Tenas
M. Calatayud
John Nwankwo
Raíllo
A. Souhmahoro
Manu Morlanes
Antoniu Roca
Pablo Torre
Álex Sala
Adrian Liso
Fuentes
Almeria (4-2-3-1)
Andrés Fernández
D. Chirino
Chumi
F. Bonini
Álex Muñoz
Javi Muñoz
Mikel Vesga
Quim Junyent
Sergio Arribas
Adri Embarba
Miguel de la Fuente
Player Ratings ?
Mallorca
Álex SalaM7.2
Arnau TenasG6.9
John NwankwoD6.8
Almeria
Andrés FernándezG8.2
Miguel de la FuenteF8.0
ChumiD7.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Mallorca edge recent form, attack and defence, head-to-head is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Mallorca stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Mallorca slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Mallorca stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Mallorca arrive at home with a perfect record from their last five outings, securing five wins without defeat, while Almeria have managed just one victory in the same span away from home. At home, Mallorca have scored in every single match of their last five games but have also kept four clean sheets within that identical recent sample. Mallorca rate stronger on form and defence, with a slight advantage in attack, while head-to-head is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 19 May 2024, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Mallorca's implied win probability has fallen by 1.1 percentage points, while Almeria's implied win probability has risen by 0.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Mallorca
Mallorca's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Mallorca win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Mallorca win
Latest market chance 45.5%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
46.6% → 45.5%
−1.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.1% → 28.7%
+0.6 pts
Almeria win
Latest market chance 25.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.4% → 25.8%
+0.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Mallorca
Draw
Almeria
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MallorcaAlmeria
Season Profile
This season
4th
League Position
5th
6
Games Played
6
2.17
Points/Game
2.00
1.33
Goals/Game
1.67
0.33
Conceded/Game
0.67
12.2
Shots/Game
13.5
3.8
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away Context
Mallorca at home (4 matches) vs Almeria away (4 matches)
2.25
Points/Game
1.50
1.75
Goals/Game
0.75
0.25
Conceded/Game
0.50
75%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Mallorca
Home form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Almeria
Away form
D
D
L
L
W
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Mallorca Wins
2
Draws
2
Almeria Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.0
Mallorca2 – 2Almeria
Almeria0 – 0Mallorca
Almeria3 – 0Mallorca
Mallorca1 – 0Almeria
Mallorca2 – 0Almeria
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Mallorcavs
Almeria
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.50
0.50
Goals conceded / game
0.90
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
2/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.1%→Latest 51.3%+0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.3%→Latest 55.9%+0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
4 of Mallorca's 10 matches and 4 of Almeria's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?