Sp Gijon vs Celta B Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
El Molinón-Enrique Castro Quini
Sun 04 Oct 2026 · 15:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.72
Draw
3.82
Away Win
5.19
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 2
Match Events ?
Sp Gijon
Celta B
8'
⚽ O. Marcos
Andrés Cuenca 🟨
25'
A. Casas ⚽
33'
45+9'
🟥 Pablo González Meixús
A. Casas ⚽
45'
50'
🟨 Anxo Rodríguez
Alejo Sarco 🟨
57'
G. Rosas (D. Matabuena) ⚽
60'
Manuel Rodríguez 🟨
69'
Mata 🟨
77'
78'
⚽ A. Kibet (A. Marin)
86'
🟨 Kike Ribes
Miguel Conde 🟨
90'
Match Statistics ?
50%
Ball Possession
50%
13
Total Shots
14
7
Shots on Goal
8
6
Corner Kicks
6
14
Fouls
10
5
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
1
1
Offsides
1
5
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Sp Gijon (3-4-3)
R. Yanez
A. Dunabeitia
J. Saenz
A. Cuenca
G. Rosas
M. Rodriguez
A. Corredera
P. Garcia
E. Prendes
A. Casas
G. Campos
Celta B (3-4-3)
J. B. Carrillo
P. Gavian
K. Ribes
A. Rodriguez
G. Milla
A. Capdevila
P. Meixus
J. Lopez
A. Kibet
A. Marin
O. Marcos
Player Ratings ?
Sp Gijon
Antonio CasasF9.9
Andrés CuencaD7.3
Jorge SáenzD7.0
Celta B
Óscar MarcosF8.3
Aldrine KibetF8.2
Ángel ArcosF7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Sp Gijon edge recent form and defence, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Sp Gijon stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Sp Gijon stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-head unavailable — prediction based on form, attack and defence.
Match Analysis
Sp Gijon have recorded two wins from their last five home outings, while Celta B have managed just a single victory and one draw alongside a defeat in their last three away matches. At this venue, Sp Gijon have found the net in two of their last five home matches but have also kept a clean sheet on two occasions during that same period. Sp Gijon rate stronger on form and defence, while attack is closely matched. Over the 6-day comparison window, Sp Gijon's implied win probability has fallen by 5.0 percentage points, while Celta B's implied win probability has risen by 2.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Sp Gijon
Sp Gijon's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Sp Gijon win as less likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Sp Gijon win
Latest market chance 56.0%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
61.0% → 56.0%
−5.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.8%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
22.4% → 24.8%
+2.4 pts
Celta B win
Latest market chance 19.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
16.6% → 19.1%
+2.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Sp Gijon
Draw
Celta B
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Sp GijonCelta B
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
14th
7
Games Played
8
1.43
Points/Game
1.13
0.71
Goals/Game
1.12
0.86
Conceded/Game
1.50
11.0
Shots/Game
12.0
4.1
Shots on Target
4.9
Home vs Away Context
Sp Gijon at home (5 matches) vs Celta B away (4 matches)
1.40
Points/Game
1.00
0.80
Goals/Game
1.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.25
40%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Sp Gijon
Home form
W
D
W
L
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Celta B
Away form
D
W
L
Won 1 of last 3 away
Limited history — only 3 away fixtures on record for Celta B.
0.67
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.67
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/3
Scored in
last 3
last 3
2/3
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
No previous meetings on record between Sp Gijon and Celta B.
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Sp Gijonvs
Celta B
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.12
0.90
Goals conceded / game
1.50
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/8
4/10
Both Teams Scored
4/8
4/10
Failed to Score
3/8
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.2%→Latest 51.3%−3.9 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.2%→Latest 51.6%−0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Celta B have only 8 completed fixtures on record.
3 of Sp Gijon's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?